2024年航运市场总结报告系列1：旺季如期反弹，2024年VLCC市场总结

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends Buy ratings for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping due to the potential increase in transportation demand from crude oil supply release in 2025 and the certainty of supply logic [39] Core Views - Freight Rates: VLCC freight rates in 2023 were high in the first half and low in the second half, with a return to normal seasonal patterns in 2024, showing strength in Q1 and Q4 and weakness in Q2 and Q3 [2] - Supply: Global VLCC fleet remains at 908 vessels, with a significant increase in black market fleet leading to a rise in idle capacity and a decline in effective fleet capacity [2] - Transportation: Global VLCC transportation demand increased slightly, but black market demand grew more significantly, while compliant oil market transportation demand saw a slight decline [2] - Terminal Demand: Oil price trends are key to changes in transportation demand, with global inventories at low levels and weak demand leading to soft crack spreads [2] Freight Rates - The average VLCC TD3C-TCE rate year-to-date as of September 18 was $36,911/day, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Clarksons predicts a 5.2% growth in VLCC transportation demand by 2025 [2] Supply - The global VLCC fleet remained at 908 vessels as of early September, with black market fleet increasing by 41 vessels to 160 vessels since the end of 2023 [2] - 16.4% of the fleet (149 vessels) are over 20 years old, with 60% of these being black market vessels [2] - 49 new VLCC orders were signed this year, with some scheduled for delivery as late as 2028, accounting for 7.9% of the order book [2] Transportation - Global VLCC ton-mile trade increased by 1.5% year-on-year from January to August 2024, with average sailing distance up 1.6% [2] - Iran and Venezuela's VLCC ton-mile exports surged by 58.1%, while compliant oil VLCC ton-mile exports excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 1.5% [2] Terminal Demand - Oil prices were high in the first half of 2024 due to geopolitical conflicts but declined in the second half due to weak demand and economic recession concerns [2] - Global inventories are at low levels, with strong operations at China's state-owned refineries but weak performance at independent refineries [2] - Crack spreads for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US are weak, with thin profit margins for China's refined oil exports [2] Valuation and Recommendations - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation has a market cap/NAV of 0.95x, while China Merchants Energy Shipping has a market cap/NAV of 0.90x [39] - The report highlights the potential for stock price increases driven by seasonal freight rate hikes and recommends both companies due to the expected increase in transportation demand and stable supply dynamics [39] Key Data - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation: Market cap of RMB 63 billion, NAV of RMB 66.05 billion, and a PE ratio of 10.8x for 2024E [40][41] - China Merchants Energy Shipping: Market cap of RMB 54.5 billion, NAV of RMB 60.77 billion, and a PE ratio of 9.3x for 2024E [40][41]