金融政策点评：政策“组合拳”出台，权益迎反弹、债市需休整

Policy Impact - The central bank's "combination punch" includes a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut, releasing approximately CNY 1 trillion in liquidity, with potential further cuts of 25-50 basis points by year-end[3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate is lowered by 20 basis points to 1.5%, aiming to guide loan and deposit rates downward[3] - Existing mortgage rates are expected to decrease by about 50 basis points, reducing annual household interest expenses by approximately CNY 150 billion[3] Market Reaction - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.15%, marking the largest single-day gain since August 2020[3] - Trading volume surged to nearly CNY 1 trillion, indicating strong market participation and optimism[3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market may have entered a phase of rebound, with potential for broad-based gains across sectors such as consumer goods, infrastructure, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications)[6] - Continued fiscal policy support is crucial for transitioning from a rebound to a sustained market uptrend, particularly focusing on household income and consumption[5] Debt Market Perspective - The bond market may experience a short-term adjustment due to profit-taking, with a potential consolidation period of 1-2 months anticipated[6] - Despite this, the long-term trend for bonds remains positive, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from both domestic and U.S. Federal Reserve policies[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential underperformance of policy measures, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and external factors such as U.S. economic conditions and geopolitical tensions[2][7]