白酒新周期系列报告之二 行业篇：穿越迷雾，驶向何方？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, specifically focusing on the new cycle of the liquor market [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has transitioned from expansive growth to a more competitive environment characterized by volume reduction and price increases. This shift is influenced by macroeconomic changes, policy adjustments, and food safety incidents [3][7]. - Short-term pressures on volume and price are expected, with a long-term trend towards concentrated competition as the market continues to evolve [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic indicators, population changes, and wealth effects in determining future trends in liquor demand and pricing [6][36]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The liquor industry has experienced three major cycles since 1989, moving from a period of volume and price increases to one of volume decline and price increases, influenced by various economic and policy factors [12][20]. - Key periods include the rapid growth phase from 2003 to 2012, followed by adjustments due to government policies and economic downturns [12][20]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that since 2016, the industry has entered a phase of squeezed competition, with a decline in overall sales volume and an increase in market concentration among leading brands [3][22]. - The market share of top brands has increased significantly, with the top six companies accounting for 46% of total revenue in 2023, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3][40]. Regional Analysis - The report analyzes various regional markets, noting that areas like Jiangsu and Anhui have seen significant increases in market share for local brands, while other regions like Shandong and Sichuan still have potential for market share growth [4][5]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with leading brands increasingly capturing market share from smaller competitors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and others, citing their potential for long-term value and competitive advantages [5][6]. - The analysis suggests that these companies are well-positioned to benefit from structural changes in the market and potential dividend payouts [5][6].