川财证券：研究所晨报-20240925
Chuancai Securities·2024-09-25 01:34

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent monetary policy changes by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to lower the average loan interest rates for existing mortgages by approximately 0.5 percentage points [2][3][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for further monetary easing depending on market liquidity conditions, with a possibility of additional cuts to the reserve requirement ratio later this year [3][6] - The report suggests that the coordinated policy measures are aimed at injecting liquidity into the real economy and capital markets, with a focus on sectors such as diversified finance and companies with restructuring expectations [3][5] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5%, which is slightly above market expectations [4][9] - Historical context is provided, indicating that similar 50 basis point cuts have occurred during critical economic downturns, such as the tech bubble burst in 2001, the financial crisis in 2007, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [4][9] - The report predicts that the U.S. economic recession pressure remains, despite the Fed's actions to alleviate concerns about a hard landing, as inflation remains sticky with the core CPI at 3.2% year-on-year [4][9] Industry Focus - The report discusses the energy storage sector, highlighting initiatives in Deyang, Sichuan, aimed at promoting green energy transition and enhancing energy storage capabilities [7] - Specific measures include increasing the scale of biomass power generation, advancing natural gas power projects, and developing a comprehensive energy storage industry chain by 2025 [7] - The report also mentions Huawei's advancements in its HarmonyOS ecosystem, indicating a significant growth in developer engagement and application availability, which may impact the technology sector positively [7]