GWMOTOR(601633) 群益证券·2024-09-25 08:10Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633.SH/02333.HK) with a target price of 30 RMB / 15 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its production capacity in the ASEAN region, with the recent launch of its KD factory in Indonesia and plans to establish a CKD factory in collaboration with Vietnam's Thanh An Group, expected to commence production in 2025 [3][5]. - The company is enhancing its product introduction in overseas markets, which is anticipated to lead to continued rapid growth in overseas sales as the sales network improves and local market penetration increases [3]. - The introduction of the Blue Mountain Intelligent Driving version has significantly boosted sales, achieving a weekly sales average of nearly 1,600 units, leading in its class [3]. - The company is expected to maintain robust profitability, with projected net profits of 13.7 billion, 15.7 billion, and 17.9 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth of 95%, 15%, and 14% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Market Expansion - The company has established a full-process vehicle manufacturing plant in Thailand and KD factories in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, benefiting from local policies supporting the manufacturing and consumption of new energy vehicles [5]. - The company has signed a memorandum of cooperation with EPMB in Malaysia for its first CKD project in the ASEAN region, with production expected this year [5]. Sales Performance - In August, the company sold 94,000 vehicles, a year-over-year decrease of 17.2%, primarily due to high sales in the same month last year [5]. - Export sales in August surpassed 40,000 vehicles, marking a year-over-year increase of 31.6%, with significant sales growth in Russia, Australia, South Africa, and Chile [5]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at 13.7 billion, 15.7 billion, and 17.9 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.84, and 2.09 RMB [3][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15, 13, and 12 for A-shares and 7, 6.1, and 5.4 for H-shares for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][7].