航运港口：美东码头或罢工在即，警惕供应链再次紊乱

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The current labor negotiations between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) have not progressed, with the existing six-year contract expiring on September 30, 2024. If a new agreement is not reached, a nationwide strike by dockworkers represented by ILA is set to begin on October 1 [10][11] - A potential strike could lead to significant disruptions in the supply chain, including container backlogs and port congestion. Estimates suggest that a one-week strike could result in container backlogs that would take until mid-November to clear, while a two-week strike could delay normal operations until 2025 [10] - The strike may also impact the return of empty containers to the U.S., potentially causing shortages in Europe and the Far East, thereby reducing the efficiency of the global shipping system [10] - Shipping companies are likely to increase surcharges in response to the strike threat, which could lead to higher spot rates. For instance, Maersk announced a surcharge of $3,000 per 40-foot container for shipments to and from East Coast and Gulf ports [10][11] - The report suggests that the shipping industry may present investment opportunities in the short to medium term due to potential supply-demand imbalances caused by unexpected disruptions [11] Summary by Sections Labor Negotiations - Ongoing negotiations between USMX and ILA have not resulted in a new contract, with the current contract expiring soon [10] Supply Chain Impact - A strike could lead to container backlogs and operational delays, affecting the supply chain significantly [10] Shipping Rates - Increased surcharges from shipping companies may lead to higher spot rates, benefiting long-term contract negotiations for shipping lines [10][11] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the shipping industry due to supply-demand shifts caused by labor disruptions [11]