美东码头或罢工在即，警惕供应链再次紊乱

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The current labor negotiations between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) have not progressed, with the existing six-year contract expiring on September 30, 2024. If a new agreement is not reached, a nationwide strike by dockworkers represented by the ILA is set to begin on October 1, 2024 [3][10]. - A potential strike could lead to significant disruptions in the supply chain, including container backlogs and port congestion. Estimates suggest that a one-week strike could result in container backlogs that would take until mid-November to clear, while a two-week strike could delay normal operations until 2025 [10]. - The strike may also impact the return of empty containers, potentially causing shortages in Europe and the Far East, which would further disrupt global shipping efficiency. For instance, it is estimated that the East Coast of the U.S. could see a daily inability to load approximately 20,000 TEUs of empty containers in October [10]. - Shipping companies are likely to increase surcharges in response to the strike threat, which could lead to a rise in spot freight rates. For example, Maersk announced a surcharge of $3,000 per 40-foot container for shipments to and from East Coast and Gulf ports [10]. - The potential for rising spot rates may benefit shipping companies in long-term contract negotiations, allowing them to secure higher prices and enhance their earnings for 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Labor Negotiations - Ongoing negotiations between USMX and ILA have not resulted in a new contract, with the current contract expiring soon [10]. Supply Chain Impact - A strike could lead to container backlogs and operational delays, significantly affecting supply chains [10]. - Estimates indicate that a one-week strike could delay operations until mid-November, while a two-week strike could extend delays into 2025 [10]. Freight Rates - Shipping companies are expected to raise surcharges, which may lead to increased spot freight rates [10]. - Higher spot rates could improve the negotiating position of shipping companies for long-term contracts, potentially increasing their 2025 earnings [11].