GWMOTOR(SH:601633) CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD·2024-09-25 08:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633.SH/02333.HK) with a target price of 30 RMB / 15 HKD [6][7]. Core Insights - Great Wall Motors is accelerating its production capacity in the ASEAN region, with the recent launch of its KD factory in Indonesia and plans to establish a CKD factory in collaboration with Vietnam's Thanh An Group, expected to commence production in 2025 [7][9]. - The company is enhancing its product introduction in overseas markets, which is anticipated to drive significant growth in overseas sales as the sales network expands and local market penetration increases [7]. - The launch of the Blue Mountain Intelligent Driving version has led to a notable increase in sales, with weekly sales reaching nearly 1,600 units, leading in its class [7]. - The company is also advancing its smart transformation, with the release of a new generation intelligent cockpit system and a development cooperation agreement with Huawei [7]. - The profitability of the company remains robust, with projected net profits of 13.7 billion, 15.7 billion, and 17.9 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth of 95%, 15%, and 14% [7][11]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - The company has established a full-process vehicle manufacturing plant in Thailand and KD factories in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, benefiting from local policies supporting the manufacturing and consumption of new energy vehicles [9]. - In August, the company sold 94,000 vehicles, a year-over-year decrease of 17.2%, but export sales surged by 31.6%, with significant growth in markets like Russia [9]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 13.7 billion RMB for 2024, 15.7 billion RMB for 2025, and 17.9 billion RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.84, and 2.09 RMB [11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15, 13, and 12 for A-shares and 7, 6.1, and 5.4 for H-shares for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][11].