国新会政策集体出台，看好家居估值修复

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent policy announcements from the State Council, including interest rate cuts and support for the real estate market, are expected to boost the home improvement demand and restore valuations in the home furnishing sector [3][10] - The average dividend yield of key home furnishing companies exceeds 5%, with an average payout ratio over 50%, indicating strong shareholder returns [3][10] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend home furnishing leaders due to favorable policy changes [3][10] Summary by Sections Policy Support - On September 24, 2024, the People's Bank of China announced a series of supportive policies, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 20 basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate [10] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 50 basis points, benefiting approximately 50 million households [10] - The unified down payment ratio for first and second homes has been set at 15%, which is anticipated to stimulate housing demand [10] Demand Stimulation - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is projected to decrease annual interest expenses for households by approximately 150 billion yuan, enhancing consumer spending [10] - Various provinces have introduced "old-for-new" subsidy policies with incentives ranging from 15% to 20%, further promoting home furnishing consumption [10] Investment Opportunities - Traditional home furnishing leaders are showing resilience with an average revenue decline of only 2.62% year-on-year in H1 2024, despite the challenging environment [10] - Key companies in the sector are trading at a low PE ratio of around 10x, with significant dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [10] - Recommended companies include: - Custom home furnishing: Sophia, known for its strong integration and traditional leadership [10] - Soft home furnishing: Gujia Home, Mousse Co., and Minhua Holdings, focusing on full-category integration [10] - Smart home furnishing: Reerte and Arrow Home, which cater to the renovation market with low penetration rates [10]