LI AUTO(02015) 海通国际·2024-09-26 02:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, with a target price of HKD 96.70, based on a 1.3x PS multiple for 2024 [3] Core Views - Li Auto is positioned to capture market share in the smart car segment priced above RMB 250,000, leveraging its "refrigerator, OLED TV, and large sofa" strategy [2] - The company has achieved early profitability and mass delivery, giving it a first-mover advantage in the era of large models [2] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive future growth, with its NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system being a key differentiator [34][40] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Li Auto's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 144.0 billion in 2024E to RMB 246.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21% [2][3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024E to RMB 17.8 billion in 2026E, reflecting a strong recovery from previous losses [2][3] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20-21% from 2024E to 2026E, indicating improved cost control [2] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's market share in the 20-30万元 SUV segment has grown significantly, reaching 11.2% in August 2024, driven by the launch of the L6 model [19][23] - In the 30-40万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L7 and L8 models have faced competition from Huawei's AITO M7, leading to a slight decline in market share [24] - In the 40-50万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L9 model maintains a strong position, with a market share of 13.7%-20.6% in 2024 [26] Intelligent Driving and Technology - Li Auto's NOA system has been fully rolled out to AD Max users as of July 2024, with cumulative autonomous driving mileage reaching 1.9 billion kilometers by June 2024 [34][40] - The company is developing a next-generation autonomous driving system based on an "end-to-end + VLM" architecture, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [34][41] - Li Auto's intelligent cockpit, powered by the Qualcomm 8295P chip and its proprietary Mind GPT AI model, has been recognized for its advanced capabilities [42] Product Strategy and Sales - Li Auto's product lineup focuses on large SUVs with a family-oriented design, offering features like in-car refrigerators, massage seats, and entertainment screens [14] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has become a best-seller, accounting for 52% of total sales in August 2024 [11][12] - The company's high-end AD Max models, equipped with advanced intelligent driving features, have seen strong demand, with over 50% of L7, L8, and L9 sales being AD Max variants [43] R&D and Cost Efficiency - Li Auto's R&D expenses per vehicle in 2023 were RMB 28,000, significantly lower than NIO's RMB 84,000, reflecting a more cost-efficient approach [15][16] - The company's R&D expense ratio was 8.8% in 2023, compared to NIO's 27.3%, indicating a leaner R&D structure [15][16]