新奥能源：回购计划应有助增加投资者信心，回调后股息率吸引

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 65.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 53.00 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's share price decline post-interim results is due to market concerns over its dividend policy, which the report considers to be an overreaction. Despite a 17% year-on-year decline in core earnings, the company increased its interim dividend by 1.6% and raised its payout ratio by 3.5 percentage points to 20.6% [1][2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of HKD 600 million, which is expected to bolster investor confidence and support the stock price amid low valuations [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in earnings, projecting a return to growth in 2025 and 2026, with expected dividend yields of 6% and 7% respectively, the highest among its peers in the gas sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 134,944 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,328 million by 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability after a dip in 2023 and 2024 [3][10]. - The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44% for the year, with a medium-term target of 50% over the next 3-4 years [1][2]. Operational Guidance - The company has set ambitious operational targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in its energy business and a retail gas volume growth exceeding 5% [6][8]. - The report projects that the gross margin for the retail gas segment will improve, maintaining around 11% from 2024 to 2026 [2][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the gas distribution sector, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 59.6 billion and a significant trading volume [5][9]. - The report notes that the company's stock has underperformed relative to the Hang Seng Index, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].