理想汽车-W：智驾打开成长新空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, with a target price of HKD 96.70, based on a 1.3x PS multiple for 2024 [3] Core Views - Li Auto is positioned to capture market share in the smart car segment priced above RMB 250,000, leveraging its "refrigerator, OLED TV, and large sofa" strategy [2] - The company has achieved early profitability and mass delivery, giving it a first-mover advantage in the era of large models [2] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive future growth, with its NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system being a key differentiator [34] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Li Auto's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 144.0 billion in 2024E to RMB 246.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024E to RMB 17.8 billion in 2026E, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20-21% over the next three years, with a return on equity (ROE) improving to 18.3% by 2026E [2] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's market share in the domestic SUV market has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.7% in August 2024, with strong performance in the 20-30万元 price segment [19] - The company faces competition from brands like Tesla, BYD, and NIO, but its focus on family-oriented SUVs has allowed it to carve out a niche [21] - Li Auto's L6 model has quickly gained traction in the 20-30万元 SUV segment, capturing 11.2% market share within two months of its launch [23] Intelligent Driving and Technology - Li Auto's NOA system has been widely adopted, with a 98% installation rate across its vehicle lineup, and cumulative autonomous driving mileage reaching 19 billion kilometers by June 2024 [34] - The company is developing a next-generation autonomous driving system based on an "end-to-end + VLM" architecture, which is expected to enhance its technological edge [34] - Li Auto's AI capabilities, including its Mind GPT model, are integrated into its smart cockpit, providing advanced voice and visual interaction features [37] Product Strategy and Sales - Li Auto follows a "big single product" strategy, with only five models in its lineup, all sharing a unified design language and family-oriented positioning [15] - The company's L6 model has been a standout performer, accounting for 52% of total sales in August 2024, with 24,897 units sold [11] - Li Auto's higher-end models, such as the L7, L8, and L9, have seen strong demand for their advanced intelligent driving features, with over 50% of sales coming from models equipped with AD Max [43] Industry Trends and Competitive Dynamics - The 20-50万元 SUV market remains highly competitive, with Li Auto and AITO (Huawei's automotive brand) gaining market share at the expense of traditional players like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz [21] - Tesla continues to lead in technological innovation, particularly in autonomous driving, but Li Auto is making significant strides in catching up, especially in the Chinese market [30] - The adoption of intelligent driving features is becoming a key differentiator in the market, with Li Auto well-positioned to benefit from this trend [43]