市场策略大类资产配置：美联储首次降息后的大类资产影响及配置

Market Strategy - The report analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut on major asset classes, indicating that historically, gold and bonds tend to perform well, while stocks and commodities show mixed results, and the dollar generally declines [1][2]. Stock Market - Following the first rate cut, global stock markets typically exhibit a negative short-term response, but emerging markets tend to outperform developed markets. As of early 2024, developed markets have shown higher gains than emerging markets, suggesting potential for greater upside in emerging markets post-rate cut [1][2]. - In the U.S. stock market, short-term upside potential exists, but may be limited due to high valuations and uncertainty regarding economic conditions. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are expected to perform better during this period [1][2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to benefit from improved liquidity and global capital rebalancing, with current valuations at historical lows indicating significant recovery potential. High-beta and growth styles are expected to outperform [1][2]. Bond Market - The bond market generally shows stable positive returns following the Fed's first rate cut, serving as a safe haven for investors. Government bonds, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds have historically yielded small positive returns, although high-yield bonds are more sensitive to economic cycles [2][6]. - Current yield levels in the U.S. bond market have already priced in optimistic rate cut expectations, suggesting limited room for further declines in long-term yields [2][6]. Commodity Market - Commodities typically perform poorly in the immediate aftermath of a rate cut, influenced by economic conditions and supply-demand dynamics. However, precious metals, particularly gold, tend to shine in such environments, showcasing their value as a hedge [2][6]. - Gold has led global asset classes with a 24% increase year-to-date, and while a short-term pullback may occur post-rate cut, its long-term value remains strong due to declining real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties [2][6]. Currency Market - Historically, the dollar tends to weaken following the Fed's first rate cut, while non-dollar currencies like the yen, pound, and Swiss franc often strengthen. Emerging market currencies, including the renminbi, are also expected to appreciate in the current rate cut cycle [2][6]. Performance Analysis - Since early 2024, major asset classes have generally risen, with gold leading at a 24% positive return. Global equities have achieved a 17% return, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets [3][4]. - An analysis of asset performance over the past 30 years shows that gold and bonds typically gain, while stocks and commodities often decline, with emerging markets showing better resilience compared to developed markets [6][11].