月度美国宏观洞察：后续降息幅度和经济衰退讨论仍悬而未决

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, indicating a dovish stance and concerns over a deteriorating labor market[1] - An additional rate cut of 50 basis points is expected in November, followed by five consecutive cuts of 25 basis points starting in December[1] - The probability of a U.S. recession has increased to 40%, up from 30%[3] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in August, with non-farm payrolls adding 142,000 jobs, although this was below market expectations[1][9] - Core CPI inflation continued to rise in August, driven by seasonal factors and increasing housing prices, reaching a new high since February[1][12] - Retail sales in August maintained a positive month-on-month growth of 0.1%, despite being slightly below market expectations[1][11] Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is expected to have slight appreciation potential by year-end, influenced by the outcome of the presidential election[1][4] - The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to remain around current levels by year-end, reflecting market pricing of anticipated rate cuts[5][6] - If the U.S. economy experiences a hard landing, the 10-year Treasury yield may decline further, while a successful soft landing could lead to upward pressure on yields[6]