房地产行业2024年9月中央政治局会议点评：政治局会议首提“促进房地产市场止跌回稳” ，地产拐点已至

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, control the increase in new housing projects, optimize existing stock, and improve quality. It also highlighted the importance of adjusting housing purchase restrictions and lowering existing mortgage rates to stimulate the market [3][4]. - The report suggests that the turning point for the real estate market has arrived, as both sales volume and prices have shown signs of stabilization after a prolonged decline [3][4]. - The meeting indicated a commitment to enhancing financial support for the real estate sector, particularly through the "white list" project loans, which have already approved financing of 1.43 trillion yuan for over 5700 projects [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - From January to August 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.0% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2013. Monthly sales have shown double-digit negative growth for 15 consecutive months [3]. - As of August 2024, new home prices in 70 major cities have been declining for 15 months, while second-hand home prices have been falling for 16 months, indicating a prolonged downtrend [3]. Policy Measures - The meeting proposed strict control over new housing supply based on local inventory and population factors, continued efforts to reduce existing stock, and support for high-quality housing development [3][4]. - Adjustments to housing purchase restrictions are anticipated, with expectations for cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen to fully lift restrictions, while Beijing and Shanghai may ease limits outside central areas [3][4]. Financial Support - The report highlights the importance of revitalizing idle land and providing financial support to real estate companies through loans for market-driven acquisitions of land [3][4]. - The Central Bank's recent announcement to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and potential further cuts aims to enhance liquidity in the market [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines of investment: companies expected to benefit significantly from policy easing, such as Vanke A and Longfor Group, and those with strong positions in core cities, like Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [3][4].