6G与卫星互联网行业深度报告：手机直连卫星的当下与未来，实例和技术角度

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 6G and satellite internet industry, highlighting the significant commercial potential of Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity [2] Core Viewpoints - Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity is identified as one of the largest opportunities in satellite communication history, with both short-term and long-term applications [2] - Three main approaches to DS satellite connectivity are identified: customized smartphone connectivity, existing smartphone connectivity, and NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) smartphone connectivity [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of satellite operators, key satellite components, and ground terminal manufacturers in the DS satellite ecosystem [4] Detailed Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Direct-to-Smartphone Satellite Connectivity Matters - DS satellite connectivity is crucial for emergency communication in the short term and for ubiquitous connectivity in the 6G era in the long term [12] - The market for DS satellite connectivity is expected to accumulate to $66.8 billion over the next decade, with user numbers projected to reach nearly 400 million by 2030 [12] Practical Perspectives: Three Approaches to DS Satellite Connectivity - Customized Smartphone Connectivity: Requires collaboration between satellite operators, smartphone manufacturers, and chipmakers, with Huawei leading in this area [3][20] - Existing Smartphone Connectivity: Led by emerging low-orbit satellite companies like SpaceX, which has already launched satellites supporting DS connectivity [3][27] - NTN Smartphone Connectivity: Based on 3GPP standards, this approach is still in the testing phase but is expected to become the dominant long-term solution [3][18] Technical Challenges and Capacity Calculations - Antenna gain is a critical factor in satellite signal transmission, with higher gain improving communication distance and reliability but also increasing complexity and cost [6] - Huawei's capacity density evaluation shows that frequency and antenna size significantly impact capacity density, with larger antennas and controlled frequencies improving performance [6] Key Industry Players - Satellite Operators: Major players include China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Satcom, and Shanghai Yuanxin [4] - Key Satellite Components: Companies like Shanghai Hanxun, CETC Mobile, and Qianzhao Optoelectronics are crucial for communication payloads and solar panels [4] - Ground Terminal Manufacturers: Key players include Haige Communications, Huaruitong, and Mengsheng Electronics [4] Market Potential and Revenue Projections - The DS satellite market is projected to reach 141.1 billion RMB by 2035, driven by low ARPU (around 200 RMB per user annually) and massive user numbers [31] - SpaceX's Starlink DS business is expected to generate significant revenue, with projections showing a potential market space of 141.1 billion RMB by 2035 [31][32] Technological Evolution and Future Directions - The report predicts that the three DS connectivity approaches will coexist in the near future, but the industry will likely converge on the NTN standard in the long term [42] - Key technologies to be addressed include shared frequency usage, high-gain satellite antennas, and high-performance satellite base stations [42]