2024年9月政治局会议点评：逆周期调节有望继续加力

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on September 26, 2024, indicates a cautious assessment of the current economic situation, highlighting new challenges and issues compared to the July meeting's more optimistic tone[6] - The meeting emphasizes the urgency of stabilizing growth, marking a shift in focus to economic work earlier than usual, which is expected to boost market confidence[5] - The goal of completing annual economic and social development targets is now framed as an effort rather than a commitment, reflecting a more conservative stance[15] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - There is an anticipated acceleration in counter-cyclical adjustments in both monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on timely implementation of new measures[7] - Fiscal policy will likely see increased issuance and utilization of ultra-long special bonds and local government bonds to support infrastructure and manufacturing investments[8] - Monetary policy is expected to become more accommodative, with recent actions including a 20 basis point reduction in policy rates and a 0.5 percentage point cut in reserve requirement ratios[9] Group 3: Risk Management - Continued attention is required on risk prevention in key areas such as real estate and capital markets, with measures already being implemented to stabilize these sectors[21] - The meeting highlights the importance of addressing risks in the real estate market, including controlling new increments and optimizing existing stock[21] - The potential for further expansion of fiscal deficits as part of new policies is acknowledged, indicating a proactive approach to economic challenges[19]