2024年9月政治局会议解读：罕见的9月政策暖风

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, is the first standalone meeting in September since the 18th National Congress to discuss the economic situation[1] - The meeting emphasized the need to "objectively and calmly view the current economic situation, acknowledge difficulties, and strengthen confidence"[3] - Macro policies will focus on "key areas and proactive measures," with an expectation of continued policy support until economic recovery is evident[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy will ensure "necessary fiscal expenditures" and promote the issuance of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds[4] - Monetary policy aims to lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement significant interest rate cuts, with expectations for further reductions in LPR and deposit rates[4] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is projected to be around 50 basis points[4] Real Estate and Market Sentiment - The meeting proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market, including increasing loan support for "white list" projects and adjusting housing purchase restrictions[5] - Policies are expected to improve market sentiment, with efforts to attract long-term capital into the market and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies[6] - The People's Bank of China announced new monetary policy tools to support market stability, indicating a proactive approach to restoring market confidence[6] Risks and Expectations - There are risks associated with policy implementation not meeting expectations and potential declines in overseas demand[6] - The current policy environment is characterized as a "warm wind," indicating supportive measures without large-scale stimulus[5]