NIO-蔚来-SW：毛利率改善向上，新品牌有望助力销量再上台阶

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price raised to $7.0, representing a potential upside of 24% [2][5][12]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to achieve sales of 230,000 electric vehicles this year, driven by the delivery of high-margin "7778" models and the introduction of new sub-brands and models [2][3]. - The company anticipates significant growth in total vehicle sales due to the upcoming launch of the L60 model and other new models, which will enhance its product matrix and pricing coverage [2][3]. - NIO's gross margin improved to 12.2% in Q2 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and is projected to reach 15% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 49,269 million in 2022 to RMB 133,560 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing cost optimization [4][10]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 14,559 million in 2022 to RMB 8,036 million by 2026, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [4][10]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.2x for automotive sales and 3.8x for other sales, leading to a target price of$ 7.0 for NIO's U.S. shares [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x for 2024 and 0.9x for 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][3]. Sales and Performance Metrics - In Q2 2024, NIO reported revenue of RMB 17,446 million, a 99% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1,689 million, reflecting a gross margin of 9.7% [9][10]. - Vehicle sales reached 57,373 units in Q2 2024, marking a 144% increase compared to the same quarter last year [9][10].