非银金融行业专题研究：低利率环境下海外保险公司的突围之路

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [4][36] Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges faced by Japanese life insurance companies due to high liability costs and declining investment yields, leading to a "spread loss" issue. It highlights strategies employed by these companies to navigate a low-interest-rate environment [6][18][36] Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for Spread Loss in Japanese Life Insurance Companies - High liability costs stem from a large number of policies with guaranteed interest rates of 4%-6.25% accumulated during Japan's economic growth from the 1970s to the 1990s [6][10] - The slowdown in new policy sales and the saturation of the life insurance market have limited the ability to reduce overall liability costs [12] - Investment yields have declined significantly since the 1990s due to falling interest rates and a collapsing economic bubble, leading to a situation where investment returns fell below the guaranteed rates of new policies [14][16] 2. Strategies to Address Spread Loss 2.1 Liability Side Adjustments - Japanese life insurance companies have responded by lowering guaranteed interest rates and adjusting product structures to reduce liability costs [18][19] - The guaranteed interest rates were reduced from a peak of 6.25% in 1990 to 1.5% by 2001, allowing the industry to gradually recover from spread loss issues [19][20] - The shift towards variable annuities with investment-linked benefits has also helped reduce rigid liability costs [20][22] 2.2 Asset Side Adjustments - Companies have increased their allocation to long-duration government bonds and foreign assets to enhance investment yields [25][28] - The proportion of government bonds in the asset mix rose from 13.5% in 1997 to 40.6% in 2022, while foreign securities increased from 9.9% to 23.8% during the same period [25][32] - The average yield on foreign stocks and bonds from 2004 to 2023 was 3.14%, surpassing the overall investment portfolio yield of 2.09% [33] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with ongoing regulatory support for lowering guaranteed interest rates and improving investment conditions, the insurance sector is expected to see better coverage of liability costs and reduced spread loss risks [36]