美联储议息会议点评（2024年9月）：重新校准，转向宽松

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75-5.0%[2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2% until 2027, above the long-term growth rate of 1.8%[2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of the year and return to the natural level of 4.2% by 2027[2] Inflation and Employment - Inflation is projected to decline, with PCE inflation expected to fall to 2.3% and core PCE inflation to 2.6% by the end of the year, both lower than previous forecasts[2] - The Fed has shifted its narrative from "fighting inflation" to "stabilizing employment," indicating a balance between employment and inflation risks[2] Policy Adjustments - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points was unexpected and reflects a recalibration of its policy stance[3] - The dot plot indicates a potential for an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, with a new target range of 4.25-4.5%[3] Market Reactions - Despite the rate cut, market interpretations lean hawkish, with the OIS curve suggesting a further 68 basis points of cuts this year[3] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased, with the 2-year yield rising to 3.62% and the 10-year yield to 3.70%[3] Future Projections - The Fed's future rate cuts are expected to be gradual, supporting rate-sensitive sectors while maintaining economic resilience[4] - The ongoing debate over the neutral interest rate is likely to become a focal point for the Fed and global markets[3]