农林牧渔行业专题研究：如何看待8月生猪产能数据？

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The number of breeding sows in August was 40.36 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05 million heads, down 4.8%, and a month-on-month decrease of 48,400 heads, down 0.12%. This is 103.5% of the normal holding capacity of 39 million heads, indicating a reasonable area for capacity regulation. The reduction in capacity in 2023 is expected to lead to a decrease in supply in the future, combined with seasonal consumption increases, suggesting that pork prices may remain profitable in the fourth quarter [3][10][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of individual stock performance, focusing on the realization of output and improvement in breeding results. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as post-cycle animal health and feed sectors, such as Haida Group [3][34] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory in August - In August, the breeding sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05 million heads, down 4.8%, and a month-on-month decrease of 48,400 heads, down 0.12%. The inventory is within the reasonable area for capacity regulation, with a continuous increase in the inventory of medium and large pigs, indicating a stable supply for the autumn and winter pork market [10][16] 2. Future Pork Price Trends and Capacity Changes - Pork prices are expected to maintain profitability in the fourth quarter due to a supply shortage caused by the reduction in capacity and increasing seasonal consumption. The report suggests that the price decline may be limited, and the breeding sow inventory is likely to show a stable and slight increase [32][33] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, highlighting the importance of high realization rates and low valuations. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, along with post-cycle animal health and feed sectors like Haida Group [34]