饮料乳品行业深度研究：奶价本轮下跌较多，预计明年有望企稳

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the dairy industry [3][64]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is currently experiencing a phase of oversupply and weak demand, leading to a significant decline in raw milk prices, which fell from 4.38 yuan/kg in 2021 to 3.22 yuan/kg by July 2024, a decrease of 26.48% [5][33][54]. - The report anticipates that raw milk prices may stabilize by Q2 2025, contingent on successful capacity reduction through the culling of approximately 300,000 dairy cows and the effective management of powder milk inventories [5][57][64]. - The industry is characterized by a duopoly of leading companies, Yili and Mengniu, which together hold a market share of 56.1% as of 2023, with Yili at 30.2% and Mengniu at 25.9% [30][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Stage and Issues in the Dairy Industry - The dairy industry has evolved through five stages since 1980, currently entering a mature phase characterized by oversupply and declining demand [4][11]. - The average per capita dairy consumption in China dropped from 14.4 kg in 2022 to 12.4 kg in 2023, indicating a potential shift to a stagnant market [4][28]. 2. Key Characteristics of Raw Milk Production - Raw milk production is marked by a two-year lag in cow maturation, making investment predictions challenging [4][35]. - Feed costs constitute 60-70% of the total costs for leading dairy farms, with smaller farms facing greater cost pressures due to lack of scale [4][38]. 3. Three Cycles of Raw Milk Prices and Future Trends - The current cycle, starting from 2021, is distinguished by simultaneous pressure from both supply and demand, leading to unprecedented price declines [5][54]. - The report outlines that if the industry can effectively reduce cow numbers and manage powder milk inventories, raw milk prices may stabilize by mid-2025 [5][57]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies with strong cost efficiency and flexibility, particularly Yili, Mengniu, and New Dairy [64][65]. - The anticipated stabilization of raw milk prices is expected to improve the financial performance of these companies by reducing asset impairment and enhancing sales recovery [64].