石油石化：政策发力：大化工4次大底复盘

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - Recent policies from the Central Political Bureau are expected to stimulate demand in the real estate and consumer sectors, which may lead to a recovery in the petrochemical and basic chemical industries [11][14] - Historical analysis of the petrochemical sector over the past 25 years indicates that during cyclical bottoms, valuations have adjusted significantly, and the recovery period tends to be longer compared to other industries. Following these bottoms, the sector often benefits from both economic cycles and policy support, suggesting a potential for substantial rebounds [11][24] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of the Petrochemical Sector - The report reviews four cyclical bottoms in the petrochemical sector over the last 25 years, noting that during these periods, the sector's PE ratios adjusted significantly, with the current cycle showing a PE of 14 for petrochemicals and 20 for basic chemicals [11][24] - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumer spending are expected to improve demand for petrochemical products, which are closely linked to the real estate sector [14][35] 2. Policy Impact on Chemical Demand - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector is currently under pressure, with a revenue of 20,685 billion yuan in 2023, a 17% decrease from 2010 levels. The net profit for the sector was 1,086 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2010 and 2011 [31] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a bottoming out in demand for olefins, with expectations that supportive policies for real estate will lead to a recovery in demand for related chemical products [36] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality cyclical assets and leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co. It also recommends monitoring sectors related to real estate, such as MDI, soda ash, and titanium dioxide, as well as consumer-driven companies like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming [42]