宏观策略评论：稳定资本市场的强心针

Group 1: Market Response to Policy Changes - The A-share market surged by 12.8% last week, marking the largest weekly increase since December 2008[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 13%, the highest weekly gain in nearly 20 years[1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, contributing to a further increase of 2.89% in the A-share index on September 27[1] Group 2: Policy Impact on Economic Outlook - The recent policy changes have significantly altered market expectations regarding the government's response to economic conditions, reducing concerns about long-term economic growth[2] - The central government's commitment to stabilizing economic growth was reinforced during the Politburo meeting, alleviating fears of a prolonged economic slowdown[2] - The introduction of structural monetary policy tools, such as the "Securities Fund Insurance Swap Facility" and "Stock Repurchase and Increase Re-loan," has shifted the operational logic of the A-share market[3] Group 3: Future Economic Implications - The effects of the recent monetary policy are unlikely to be reflected in this year's economic data due to the approaching end of the fiscal year and seasonal factors[3] - The focus on monetary policy may overshadow the need for fiscal policy adjustments, which are crucial for stabilizing economic growth[5] - The potential for significant fiscal stimulus, as suggested by proposals for a 10 trillion yuan fiscal package, could be critical for economic recovery[8]