化工行业周报：政策密集出台，终端需求将持续复苏，重点关注地产链、消费链及低估值白马企业

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, emphasizing a focus on the real estate chain, consumer chain, and undervalued blue-chip companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment for the chemical industry indicates a recovery in the domestic economy, with oil prices expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel in Q4 due to tight global supply [4][5]. - Recent government policies are expected to stimulate demand in the real estate and consumer sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yuanxing Energy [4][10]. - The chemical sector is advised to focus on traditional cycles, emphasizing blue-chip and niche companies for potential alpha returns [4][10]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Oil prices are projected to remain around $70 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and a recovering domestic economy [4][5]. - Coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [4][5]. - Natural gas prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with overall energy prices likely to remain above the mid-level [4][5]. Policy Impact - Recent policies aim to enhance liquidity in the real estate sector, with mortgage rates for existing loans expected to decrease by approximately 0.5 percentage points [9][10]. - The introduction of new monetary policy tools is anticipated to improve market liquidity and risk appetite, aiding the recovery of blue-chip company valuations [10]. Chemical Sector Insights - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Wanhua Chemical, Yuanxing Energy, and others in the real estate and consumer chains [4][10]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI data, with expectations of a slow rebound from negative values [4][5]. - The report notes that the titanium dioxide market is entering a peak demand season, with potential price increases anticipated [4][12]. Price Movements - Recent price movements in the PTA and polyester markets show a 1.9% increase in PTA prices, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][11]. - The report also mentions stable pricing for various chemicals, including MDI and PVC, with slight fluctuations noted in the market [12][13][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the chemical and agricultural sectors [4][10]. - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and others in the fluorochemical and agricultural sectors for potential investment opportunities [4][10].