国内高频指标跟踪（2024年第37期）：“可感可及”的宏观转向周

Policy Changes - The State Council announced a series of proactive policies to support high-quality economic development, including a 20 basis point cut in reverse repos and expected reductions in existing mortgage rates[1] - The central bank is expected to provide tools to support the capital market, indicating a shift towards more tangible and accessible policies[1] Market Sentiment - Risk appetite is expected to recover, leading to a phase of market rebalancing, as previous investments focused on safe assets like interest rate bonds and high-dividend stocks[1] - The likelihood of policy reversals in the short term is low, suggesting a more stable investment environment[1] Economic Indicators - The September production synchronization index (HTPI) is at 4.81%, down from 4.97% in August; the export synchronization index (HTEXI) is at 7.16%, up from 6.71%; and the consumption synchronization index (HTCI) is at 3.29%, up from 3.07%[7] - Consumer spending shows mixed signals, with automotive sales declining while textile and clothing sales are seasonally recovering[11] Investment Trends - New special bond issuance reached 1,027.92 billion yuan in September, the highest monthly total this year, supporting infrastructure investment[21] - Real estate sales are showing seasonal recovery, with average daily new home sales in 30 major cities decreasing year-on-year by 45.2%, an improvement from a 55.5% decline[21] External Trade - Weak overseas data is impacting exports, with South Korea's exports to China declining by 6.5% year-on-year in September[24] - International shipping rates are fluctuating, with domestic export rates decreasing by 6.0% week-on-week, indicating pressure on export activities[24] Production and Inventory - Steel production is showing signs of improvement, with a continued recovery in the industry, although overall production remains at historical lows[30] - Social inventory of steel is decreasing rapidly, with current levels at the lowest for the same period in recent years, driven by improving downstream demand[35] Price Trends - CPI shows a 3.0% month-on-month decrease in pork prices, while vegetable prices are rising, contributing to a year-on-year increase of 26.6%[37] - PPI indicates a 2.3% month-on-month increase in the comprehensive index, with notable rises in energy and industrial product prices[37]