菜单成本经济中的非线性动力学？来自美国数据的证据（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - Standard menu cost models struggle to simultaneously account for the dispersion in micro-price changes and the increase in the fraction of price changes during inflationary periods in the U.S. [4][10] - The Golosov and Lucas (2007) model predicts significant increases in the fraction of price changes during high inflation but fails to capture the dispersion in price changes, leading to minimal monetary non-neutrality [6][40] - Alternative models that better replicate the dispersion in price changes, such as the Calvo-plus specifications, predict a nearly constant fraction of price changes, resulting in linear output dynamics [8][34] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report evaluates the ability of menu cost models to reproduce the relationship between inflation and the fraction of price changes in the U.S. [5] - It highlights the implications for the Phillips curve and monetary policy trade-offs [5] Motivating Evidence - The fraction of price changes has been observed to increase during high inflation periods, with historical data showing a rise from approximately 10% in the 1990s to 23% post-COVID [12][13] Model - The report considers three specifications of price adjustment technology: fixed menu cost, Calvo-plus, and a uniform distribution of menu costs [14][20] - Each model's ability to reproduce the comovement between inflation and price changes is assessed [14] Nonlinear Dynamics - The report investigates the nonlinear responses of the models to monetary shocks, concluding that none can fully replicate the observed data [34][36] - The Golosov and Lucas model predicts significant nonlinearities but fails to match the dispersion in price changes, while other models predict larger real effects but with linear dynamics [36][40] Conclusions - The report emphasizes the challenge for menu cost models to simultaneously account for both the micro-price data and the relationship between inflation and the fraction of price changes [39][40]