通货膨胀加速器（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report develops a sticky price model that shows the fraction of price changes increases with inflation, creating a feedback loop termed the "inflation accelerator" which steepens the Phillips curve during high inflation periods [4][9][12] - The model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curve varies significantly over time, ranging from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.12 in the 1970s and 1980s, indicating that reducing inflation is less costly when inflation is high [9][12] - The findings suggest that the frequency of price changes is higher during periods of high inflation, which has implications for monetary policy and output stabilization [9][12] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report addresses the dynamics of inflation and the Phillips curve, emphasizing the importance of understanding the causes of high inflation [6][9] Model - The model allows the frequency of price changes to fluctuate endogenously, contrasting with the standard Calvo model [13][34] - It incorporates a feedback mechanism where an increase in inflation leads to a higher fraction of price changes, further driving inflation [9][10] Parameterization - The model is calibrated using U.S. CPI data from 1962 to 2023, with key parameters reflecting the average inflation rate and the frequency of price changes [40][44] - The average inflation rate is found to be 3.5%, with a standard deviation of 2.7% and an average quarterly fraction of price changes at 29.7% [44] Steady State Analysis - The steady-state analysis shows that the fraction of price changes increases with trend inflation, from 24% at zero inflation to 41% at 10% annual inflation [50][52] Real Effects of Monetary Shocks - The report examines how the economy responds to monetary shocks under different inflation environments, highlighting that the real effects are smaller in high inflation contexts due to a higher steady-state frequency of price changes [55]