9月中共中央政治局会议学习体会：正视困难，坚定信心

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, reflects a proactive policy approach to current economic challenges, emphasizing the need to "face difficulties and strengthen confidence" [1] - Compared to the July meeting, the September meeting adopted a more positive tone, highlighting the urgency of enhancing economic responsibility and implementing detailed policies across key sectors [1] Consumer Spending and Income - The meeting reiterated the importance of "benefiting people's livelihoods" as a driver for consumption, focusing on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and optimizing consumption structure [5] - From January to August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a persistent decline in consumer spending [5] - The per capita disposable income growth rate for residents in the first half of 2024 narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter, with all income types showing reduced growth [5] Employment and Social Security - The meeting expanded its focus on key employment groups, including migrant workers and zero-employment households, indicating a shift in fiscal spending towards social security [5] - Emphasis was placed on enhancing public services in childcare and elderly care, with policies expected to improve consumer sentiment through increased public spending [5] Fiscal Policy and Government Investment - The meeting stressed the need for necessary fiscal expenditures, with government investment expected to focus on "three major projects" and affordable housing to stabilize growth [6] - Private fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 0.2% from January to August 2024, necessitating government investment to stimulate private sector activity [6] Capital Market and Wealth Effect - The meeting introduced measures to boost the capital market, aiming to enhance the wealth effect and promote growth in residents' wealth income [7] - Strategies include guiding long-term funds into the market and reforming public funds to stabilize capital market development [7] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include overseas recession and geopolitical uncertainties, which could impact domestic economic stability [1]