不锈钢周报- 美年内再降息50BP预期升温，国内外流动性宽松，SS或顺势走强

Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, bringing the average deposit reserve ratio to approximately 6.6%[3] - The U.S. PCE price index for August increased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from 2.5%, indicating a step towards the 2% inflation target[3] - Indonesia's nickel-iron shipments to China decreased by 88.25% month-on-month to 37,300 tons, while total shipments to major Chinese ports increased by 288.47% month-on-month to 306,700 tons[3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The production cost of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is estimated at around 13,850 RMB/ton, with potential for further decline[3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase steadily, with 43 stainless steel mills projected to produce 333.42 million tons in September, a 0.74% decrease month-on-month but a 4.59% increase year-on-year[10] - Social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.58% week-on-week to 1,014,982 tons, with cold-rolled inventory down by 2%[10] Trading Logic - Short positions are favored due to high production and inventory levels, with weak downstream demand and a cautious purchasing approach[3] - Long positions may benefit from lower social inventory compared to last year and pre-holiday stocking up, which could boost market sentiment[3] Price Trends - The main continuous settlement price for stainless steel is 13,445 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.26% increase week-on-week but a 9.37% decrease year-on-year[9] - The price of Wuxi cold-rolled stainless steel (304/2B) is currently at 13,800 RMB/ton, down 0.72% from the previous week and down 10.97% year-on-year[9] Technical Analysis - The market is currently facing resistance around the 13,800 RMB/ton level, with technical indicators suggesting a potential upward trend[13]