中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20240930

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the profitability of industrial enterprises, with total profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China reaching CNY 46,527.3 billion from January to August 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, a drop of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5][6] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to industrial profitability is weakening, with the profit growth rate for the manufacturing industry dropping to 1.1% from January to August 2023, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][6] - The report indicates that consumer spending is under pressure, with a notable increase in the marginal propensity to consume among residents, suggesting that stabilizing consumption requires increasing residents' income and adjusting consumption structure [2][3] Economic Overview - The report discusses the wave-like recovery of domestic demand and the economy post-pandemic, noting that while economic growth has been stable, domestic demand has shown significant volatility [2] - Retail sales growth has been on a downward trend since November 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8% in per capita consumption expenditure for residents in the first half of 2024, which is higher than the retail sales growth of 3.7% [2] - The report emphasizes the need for fiscal policy support to enhance corporate profitability, as demand insufficiency and weak pricing are hindering profitability [6] Industry Performance - The report notes that the industrial sector's profitability is being adversely affected by weak demand and pricing, with August 2023 seeing a year-on-year decline in profits by 17.8% [4][5] - The contribution of the raw materials processing industry to profit growth has significantly weakened, with the black metal smelting industry being a major drag on overall profitability [5][6] - The report suggests that traditional and high-tech manufacturing sectors are also seeing reduced contributions to profit growth, indicating a need for strategic improvements in these areas [6]