商业银行2024年半年度业绩点评：一揽子政策对商业银行净息差冲击有限，核销力度加大维持资产质量稳定

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the commercial banking sector, with expectations of slight narrowing of net interest margins in 2025, but within a controllable range [1][4]. Core Insights - The comprehensive policy package is expected to stimulate overall demand, benefiting loan growth stability for commercial banks, while the reduction in existing mortgage rates may help mitigate early repayment risks and positively impact mortgage asset quality [1][4]. - The report highlights that the net interest margin pressure on commercial banks is relatively controllable, despite the anticipated decline due to lower mortgage rates and LPR adjustments [4][8]. - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is improving, with a notable decrease in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for corporate real estate loans for the first time in three years [1][20]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the total asset growth rate for commercial banks was approximately 7.3%, lower than the same period last year, with varying growth rates across different types of banks [5][38]. - The net interest margin for listed banks decreased to 1.61%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on interest income [15][36]. Loan Quality and Asset Management - As of June 2024, the non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was about 3.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, reflecting increased efforts in asset quality management [18][20]. - The report notes that the NPL ratio for commercial banks improved to 1.56% by the end of Q2 2024, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year [20][24]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks reached a historical high, with core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improving to 10.7% as of June 2024 [36][38]. - The issuance of subordinated debt and perpetual bonds is expected to remain high due to the upcoming redemption period for existing bonds, indicating a sustained demand for external capital [40][43]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the reduction in deposit rates is expected to partially offset the negative impact of lower mortgage rates on net interest margins, although it will not fully compensate for the LPR reductions [4][8]. - The ongoing economic slowdown is creating pressure on loan quality, particularly in certain regions, but the overall asset quality is expected to remain stable due to proactive measures by banks [24][25].