Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights favorable policies and the peak season for the industry, suggesting investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. - The copper segment is expected to benefit from sustained macroeconomic positive sentiment, with copper prices continuing to rise [6]. - The aluminum segment is anticipated to see improved demand for construction aluminum due to real estate policy catalysts, providing upward price elasticity [6]. - The tin market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with traditional peak seasons continuing to deplete inventories [6]. - The molybdenum market is expected to experience an expanding supply-demand gap, leading to a potential price surge [6]. - The tungsten market is likely to see continued upward price movement due to tight supply conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Copper - Domestic macroeconomic positive sentiment is driving copper prices upward, with LME/SHFE copper prices as of September 27, 2024, at $9,995/ton and ¥78,600/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 23.78% and 17.00% respectively [6]. - Supply disruptions and declining resource grades are expected to constrain long-term supply, potentially catalyzing a new price upcycle [6]. Aluminum - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is growing rapidly, but supply is also increasing, narrowing the demand gap [6]. - As of September 27, 2024, SHFE aluminum prices were ¥20,400/ton, up 4.98% year-on-year, while alumina averaged ¥4,082/ton, up 38.51% [6]. - The report suggests monitoring stocks that may benefit from rising aluminum prices and falling alumina prices [6]. Tin - Global tin supply is projected to be 377,000 tons in 2024, with demand at 379,000 tons, indicating a slight supply deficit [6]. - As of September 27, 2024, LME/SHFE tin prices were $32,400/ton and ¥257,400/ton, with year-on-year increases of 26.22% and 16.94% respectively [6]. Molybdenum - The report forecasts a growing supply-demand gap for molybdenum, with global demand expected to reach 299,000 tons by 2026 [6]. - As of September 27, 2024, the price for 45% molybdenum concentrate was ¥3,695/ton, down 3.65% year-on-year [6]. - The traditional peak demand season is expected to provide upward price elasticity for molybdenum [6]. Tungsten - The total mining quota for tungsten in 2024 is set at 114,000 tons, with limited growth expected due to various supply constraints [6]. - As of September 27, 2024, the average market price for black tungsten and APT was ¥137,000/ton and ¥203,000/ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13.2% and 12.2% respectively [6].
有色金属：政策端利好叠加行业旺季，关注有色金属板块配置机会
Guolian Securities·2024-09-30 08:09