COSL(601808) 东兴证券·2024-09-30 08:09Investment Rating - Strong Buy: The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for COSL (China Oilfield Services Limited), citing its position as a global integrated offshore oil service leader with significant growth potential in the current cycle [1][6] Core Views - COSL's growth space has been unlocked in the current cycle, driven by its comprehensive industry chain advantages and strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1][2] - The company's dual growth engines, oilfield technical services and drilling services, are expected to drive future growth, supported by technological breakthroughs and domestic energy supply policies [6] - COSL benefits from the high industry prosperity, with global oilfield service market size predicted to grow by 7.1% in 2024 [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, COSL achieved revenue of RMB 22.529 billion, a YoY increase of 19.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.592 billion, up 18.9% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue reached RMB 12.381 billion, a YoY increase of 18.85%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 957 million, up 2.34% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved to 16.4% in H1 2024, up 1.6 percentage points YoY, while net margin slightly decreased to 7.6%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY [3] Business Segments - Oilfield Technical Services: Revenue reached RMB 12.83 billion in H1 2024, up 20.8% YoY, accounting for 56.95% of total revenue [2] - Drilling Services: Revenue increased by 18.2% YoY to RMB 6.42 billion in H1 2024, with day rates rising 4.9% YoY to USD 86,000/day [2] - Vessel Services: Revenue grew by 14.2% YoY to RMB 2.18 billion in H1 2024, with operating days increasing by 19.6% YoY [2] - Geophysical Services: Revenue surged by 20.4% YoY to RMB 1.1 billion in H1 2024, with 3D acquisition workload increasing by 189.5% YoY [2] Market Expansion - COSL successfully entered the Brazilian market, signing a drilling and workover service contract with a Brazilian client, expected to commence operations in 2025 [2] - Two previously suspended platforms in Saudi Arabia have secured new contracts, with one platform expected to start operations in late August/early September 2024 and another securing a 3-year contract in Southeast Asia [3][6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts COSL's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach RMB 3.425 billion, RMB 4.375 billion, and RMB 5.559 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0.72, RMB 0.92, and RMB 1.16 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - ROE is expected to improve from 8.0% in 2024 to 11.9% in 2026, reflecting the company's strong profitability and growth potential [7] Industry Outlook - The global oilfield service market is expected to grow by 7.1% in 2024, driven by increased upstream capital expenditures due to medium-to-high oil prices [3] - COSL, as a global leader in offshore oil services, is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward trend, leveraging its full industry chain advantages and overseas market expansion [3][6]