东 兴 晨 报 经济要闻 2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 本期编辑 | 分析师：刘田田 | | | --- | --- | | 010-66554038 | liutt@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480521010001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002074.SZ | 国轩高科 | | 002850.SZ | 科达利 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 600012.SH | 皖通高速 | | 600176.SH | 中国巨石 | | 605123.SH | 派克新材 | | 688103.SH | 国力电子 | | 688111.SH | 金山办公 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《十月金股汇》 2025 年 09 月 29 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 司 东兴晨报 P1 1. 国家统计局：前三季度中国 GDP ...

公 司 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强烈推荐/维持 北京利尔 公司报告 公司发布2025年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入54.46亿元，同比增长9.16%； 归母净利润 3.48 亿元，同比增长 12.28%；扣非后归母净利润为 2.12 亿元， 同比下降 26.66%，实现 EPS 为 0.29 元。 点评： 耐材主业稳健发展，第三季度扣非后归母净利润逆势转正。前三季度公司营业 收入保持稳定增长态势，同比增速较上半年提高 0.01 个百分点，增长 9.16%。 除了包钢利尔并表外，也和公司整包模式下大客户的生产相对稳定有关。耐火 材料下游行业反内卷政策推进，公司下游客户为大客户为主，受益反内卷政策。 在收入增长的带动下，公司第三季度扣非后归母净利润为 0.83 亿元，同比增 长 3.51%，改变了 2024 年第三季度以来单季度同比下滑的态势。 盈利水平同比稳定，ROE、有息负债率和经营净现金流环比有改善。2025 年 前三季度公司毛利率为 14.79%，同比下降 0.34 个百分点，总体保持稳定，这 与耐火材料行业景气度较低，行业竞争加剧有关。公司扣非后净资产收益率为 3.68%，较 2025 ...

Economic News - The People's Bank of China will participate in the 2025 Financial Street Forum and host several events focused on international financial governance and cooperation [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other authorities will implement new duty-free shopping policies in Hainan starting November 1, expanding the range of duty-free goods and adjusting age limits for shoppers [2] - The National Market Supervision Administration is establishing a reporting system for fire incidents involving new energy vehicles [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will hold hearings regarding anti-dumping investigations on pork and related products [2] - The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of new local government debt limits for 2026 to support major strategic projects and address hidden debts [2] - The new national standard for infant food processors will be implemented in May 2026, aiming to enhance product quality and safety [2] - China's railway investment reached 593.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [2] - In the shipbuilding sector, China maintained a leading global market share in three key indicators, with a completion volume of 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [3] Important Company Information - The China Express Development Index for September 2025 was 459.6, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating steady growth in the express delivery market [4] - In July 2025, domestic smartphone shipments reached 28.09 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with 5G phones accounting for 80.5% of total shipments [4] - Yongmaotai signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a leading domestic humanoid robot company to develop new materials and intelligent robot components [4] - Sitwei expects a net profit of 656 million to 736 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 140% to 169% year-on-year [4] - Jingjiawei signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Cangqiong Digital to integrate their strengths in various sectors, including GIS and high-performance GPU products [4] - Tengjing Technology reported a third-quarter revenue of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.83% [4] - Yingstone Network's third-quarter revenue was 1.465 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25% [4] Airline Industry Analysis - In September, domestic airlines increased capacity by approximately 2.2% year-on-year, while international capacity saw a significant year-on-year increase of about 9.4% [5][8] - The overall passenger load factor for listed airlines improved by approximately 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand despite a seasonal decline [6][7] - Major airlines like Eastern Airlines and Air China reported significant year-on-year increases in international load factors, with Eastern Airlines up by 6.8% [9] - The release of the "Self-Regulation Convention for Air Passenger Transport" in August is expected to help stabilize the market and improve profitability [10] Banking Industry Analysis - As of September, the total social financing (TSF) grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a notable decline in growth rate compared to previous months [12][13] - New RMB loans in September amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3,000 billion yuan [14] - The M1 money supply increased by 7.2% year-on-year, indicating a trend of deposit activation, while M2 grew by 8.4% [17] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in net interest margins and a potential recovery in net interest income as the market adjusts [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The overall passenger load factor in September remained high, with significant year-on-year improvements in international routes [1][4] - Domestic capacity growth was modest at approximately 2.2% year-on-year, while there was a notable decrease of about 15.7% compared to August [2][16] - The implementation of the self-discipline convention by the China Air Transport Association is expected to help stabilize the market and improve profitability [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The passenger load factor for listed airlines increased by approximately 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while it decreased by 1.0 percentage point compared to August [3][34] - Eastern Airlines showed the most aggressive improvement in load factor, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in September [48] 2. Domestic Route Capacity - Domestic airlines maintained a low growth rate in capacity, with a year-on-year increase of about 2.2% and a month-on-month decrease of approximately 15.7% [2][16] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards lower price segments, necessitating cost efficiency improvements for airlines [2][18] 3. Domestic Route Load Factor - The overall load factor for domestic routes remained high, with a year-on-year increase of about 2.1 percentage points [34][42] - Major airlines like Eastern Airlines and Air China reported significant year-on-year load factor improvements of 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively [48][39] 4. International Route Capacity - International route capacity for listed airlines increased by approximately 9.4% year-on-year, while it decreased by about 9.5% compared to August [4][54] - The load factor for international routes improved by approximately 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery compared to last year [4][60] 5. Airport Throughput - Major airports such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen reported year-on-year growth in international passenger throughput of 19%, 13%, and 15%, respectively [68][74] - Overall, international passenger throughput growth rates are stabilizing as the industry moves into the latter half of the year [68][72]

银行行业：存款延续活化，信贷需 求仍偏弱 ——9 月社融金融数据点评 事件：10 月 15 日，中国人民银行发布 9 月社融与金融数据。9 月末，存量社 融同比+8.7%；M2 同比+8.4%、M1 同比+7.2%；人民币贷款同比+6.6%、存 款同比+8.0%；9 月人民币贷款新增 1.29 万亿，人民币存款新增 2.21 万亿。 点评： （一）政府债高基数+信贷同比少增，社融增速继续下降。9 月末社融同比 +8.7%，增速环比上月下降 0.1pct；社融（剔除政府债）同比+5.94%，增速环 比持平。9 月单月社融新增 3.53 万亿，同比少增 2297 亿。其中，政府债券净 融资 1.19 万亿，占新增社融的 34%，支撑力度边际回落；在去年同期高基数 下，同比少增 3471 亿。人民币贷款新增 1.61 万亿，同比少增 3662 亿。表外 融资新增 3579 亿，同比多增 1869 亿；主要是未贴现银票多增 1923 亿。直接 融资方面，企业债券融资 105 亿元，同比多增 2031 亿；股票融资 500 亿，同 比多增 372 亿。展望后续，由于今年政府债发行节奏前置，前三季度发行进度 已超八成，四 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the A-share market amidst external shocks, indicating a sustained upward trend in the medium term despite recent volatility [4][5] - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery with positive relative returns, driven by improved dividend yields and stable fundamentals [7][8] - The commercial aerospace industry, particularly in rocket technology, presents investment opportunities in engine component suppliers and testing service providers [12][15] Economic News - China's scientists have made significant advancements in solid-state lithium batteries, potentially doubling the range of electric vehicles from 500 km to over 1000 km [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a three-year plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming for 28 million charging stations [2] - TSMC reported a record net profit growth of 39% in Q3 2025, with optimistic projections for the AI market and a capital expenditure increase [2] Company Insights - XPeng Motors achieved a remarkable 79.4% year-on-year increase in exports in September 2025, with total exports exceeding 29,723 units in the first nine months [3] - Tianhao Energy signed an investment agreement for a natural gas development project, enhancing energy security in the Southwest region [3] - Xiaomi launched a new ad-free short drama app, indicating a strategic move into content distribution [3] Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's PB valuation stands at 0.67x, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages, with several banks showing positive stock performance [7][8] - The report anticipates stable net interest income growth due to a stabilization in interest margins and a resilient banking sector despite external pressures [9] - Mid-term dividend announcements from banks are expected to attract long-term capital, enhancing the sector's appeal [10] Commercial Aerospace Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of engine components and testing services in the commercial rocket industry, particularly referencing SpaceX's development of the Falcon 1 rocket [12][15] - Key suppliers in the domestic market, such as Sui Rui New Materials and Guoji Precision, are highlighted for their roles in providing critical components for rocket engines [16]

Economic News - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology of China met with Apple's CEO to discuss Apple's business development in China and cooperation in the electronic information sector, emphasizing China's commitment to high-level opening-up and creating a favorable business environment for foreign companies [2] - In September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in food prices, which fell by 4.4%, impacting CPI significantly [2] - The Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecological Expo showcased new domestic EDA design software with a 30% performance improvement over industry benchmarks and a 40% reduction in hardware development cycle [2] - A new high-precision, scalable analog matrix computing chip was developed, achieving a computational throughput and energy efficiency improvement of 100 to 1000 times over current top digital processors [2] - China's oil drilling has reached depths exceeding 10,000 meters, marking a significant advancement in deep earth energy exploration [2] - JD.com announced a collaboration with CATL and GAC Group to develop a new vehicle, leveraging JD's data and channel advantages [2] - SenseTime and Cambricon signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance AI infrastructure and explore international markets [2] - Global smartphone shipments increased by 3% in Q3 2025, with Samsung leading the market with a 19% share, followed by Apple at 18% [3] Company Insights - The banking sector has seen a positive relative return after adjustments, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 0.28% [5] - The banking sector's PB valuation stands at 0.67x, indicating a favorable position compared to historical levels [5] - Key banks such as Qilu Bank and Agricultural Bank of China reported significant stock price increases, reflecting market confidence [5] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from upcoming mid-term dividends, enhancing the attractiveness of bank stocks for long-term investors [6] - The net interest income for banks is projected to improve, with a stabilization of net interest margins anticipated in Q3 [6] - The average dividend yield for listed banks has increased to 4.4%, making them more appealing to long-term investors [7] - The report suggests a focus on quality mid-sized banks with performance potential and state-owned banks with stable profitability for long-term investments [8] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of the rocket engine components and testing services in the commercial space industry, particularly referencing SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket development [10] - The Merlin 1A engine is identified as a critical component, with the combustion chamber being a key area of focus for material and manufacturing technology [10] - The report emphasizes the significance of extensive testing in achieving high success rates for rocket launches, with SpaceX achieving a 97.76% success rate [14] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies supplying rocket engine components and those providing testing services for commercial rockets [15]

银行行业：中期分红逐步展开，提 升银行板块关注度 2025 年 10 月 15 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 本周（2025.10.09 - 2025.10.10），随着外部扰动因素增多、复杂化，市场风 险偏好有所下降，银行板块在前期充分调整之后重新录得正的相对收益。申万 银行指数上涨 0.28%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.8pct。截至 10 月 10 日，银行板 块 PB 估值为 0.67x，处于 2015 年以来 35.1%的分位数水平。个股方面，涨 幅靠前的有齐鲁银行（+2.6%）、长沙银行（+2.6%）、上海银行（+2.6%）、农 业银行（+2.4%）。 回顾 7 月以来银行板块持续调整，主要是受反内卷、AI 科技浪潮中，市场风 险偏好显著上升，资金风格切换的影响，银行板块基本面稳健的底色未变。站 在当前时点，我们认为，随着中期分红逐步展开，以及充分调整后银行股息吸 引力持续提升，长期资金布局有望带来资金面支撑。同时，在息差阶段企稳、 中收延续改善下，银行基本面具有较强韧性。看好四季度市场风格再平衡下， 银行板块估值修复行情。 基本面：短期经营韧性强，静待中期经济复苏推动基本面改善。预计三季报上 ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce of China has taken countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation in response to the U.S. investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors [2] - The Chinese automotive industry has seen significant growth in the first nine months of the year, with production and sales reaching 24.43 million and 24.36 million vehicles, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [2] - The China Nuclear Group has made significant progress in key technologies for magnetic confinement nuclear fusion energy extraction, establishing a research platform for liquid metal and helium gas working fluids [2] Company Insights - ZTE Corporation has completed testing for 5G-A cellular passive IoT technology, achieving a 100% success rate in inventory success for both single and multiple tags [4] - CATL has established a new five-year strategic cooperation with Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, focusing on electric vehicle technology development and market expansion [4] - Tongyu Communication has entered the low-orbit satellite supply chain and received overseas orders, aiming to enhance its capabilities in satellite-ground collaboration [4] Daily Research - The report indicates that external shocks have limited impact on the market, with the A-share market maintaining a mid-term upward trend despite recent volatility [5] - The report suggests a dual mainline investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of the technology sector while also considering cyclical sectors like military, pharmaceuticals, and new energy [6] Satellite Internet Industry - The report reviews the development of SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, highlighting the importance of engine components and testing services in the commercial space industry [8] - The Merlin 1A engine is identified as a core component of the Falcon 1 rocket, with the combustion chamber being critical for its performance [9] - The report emphasizes the significance of extensive testing in achieving a high success rate for rocket launches, with SpaceX achieving a 97.76% success rate across its missions [12] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on domestic suppliers of rocket engine components and testing services as promising investment opportunities in the commercial space sector [13] - Specific companies highlighted include Srey New Materials and Guoji Precision Engineering as key players in the rocket engine supply chain [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the communication industry, specifically highlighting investment opportunities in the satellite internet sector [2]. Core Insights - The report reviews the development history of SpaceX's Falcon 1 rocket, emphasizing the importance of engine components and testing services in the commercial space industry [4][68]. - The Falcon 1 rocket's development took 46 months, with the testing phase being the most time-consuming, highlighting the critical role of testing in rocket development [6][24]. - The Merlin 1A engine, a key component of the Falcon 1, utilizes copper alloy for its combustion chamber, which is essential for high-temperature and high-pressure conditions [5][33]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in domestic suppliers of engine components and testing services for commercial rockets [68][69]. Summary by Sections Falcon 1 Rocket Development - The Falcon 1 rocket, SpaceX's first product, demonstrated the feasibility of core technologies such as the Merlin engine and guidance control [19]. - The rocket's structure includes an aluminum alloy frame and carbon fiber composite materials, with a payload capacity of approximately 0.67 tons to low Earth orbit [19]. Engine Components - The Merlin 1A engine's combustion chamber operates at temperatures between 3000-4000°C and pressures exceeding 200 atmospheres [33]. - The engine's turbine pump, which is crucial for fuel and oxidizer delivery, operates at speeds up to 20,000 RPM [49]. Testing and Validation - Extensive testing was conducted during the development of the Falcon 1, with over 4,000 tests of the Merlin engine, contributing to a success rate of 97.76% for SpaceX's launches [8][61]. - The report emphasizes that testing is vital for achieving reusability in rockets, with SpaceX implementing a proactive trial-and-error approach to improve reliability [64]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies that supply engine components and provide testing services to domestic private rocket firms, indicating a favorable investment landscape in these areas [68][69].