农林牧渔行业：节前猪价转跌，1 月出栏环比下行 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，1 月均价回暖。农业农村部监测数据显示，2026 年 1 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 25.38 元/公斤、13.18 元/公斤和 23.40 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 8.44%、7.50%和 3.39%。猪价自 25 年 12 月底部 回升，涨势持续至 1 月中下旬，而后止涨下滑。2 月猪价打破年前高企预期， 持续回调，截至 2 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 12 元/公斤。 供应端：1 月规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月猪价形成 支撑。2 月节后弱预期带来节前出栏集中，生猪供应压力增大。需求端：1 月 春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。但屠宰端盈利压力较大，对开工率和 价格上行造成阻力。2 月上旬屠宰开工率环比一月末略有提振，但仍不及往年 腊月水平，春节节点偏晚，需求分散，终端备货支撑不足。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头，相比 10 月末进一步下降。 从三方数据来看 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors and companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in the market. [2][5] Economic News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan from the market. [3] - The overnight SHIBOR rate reported at 1.3680%, down by 1 basis point, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate decreased by 4 basis points to 1.4570%. [3] - The Supreme People's Court reported over 27,000 cases related to cross-border fraud, with significant sentences handed down to key criminal groups. [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed the feasibility of new frequency bands for IMT and future 6G technology at a recent international meeting. [3] - Heilongjiang Province's government report emphasized the reform of state-owned enterprises and support for private sector development. [3] - The establishment of a national quality inspection center for rare earth permanent magnet motors in Liaoning Province aims to enhance quality assurance in high-end manufacturing. [4] Company News - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a share buyback plan of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24.00 yuan per share. [5] - Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to enhance its core competitiveness and fund acquisitions totaling up to 1.882 billion yuan. [5] - Huylon New Materials is undergoing a significant change that may affect its control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock. [5] - Fangzheng Valve reported a revenue of 733 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.98%, with net profit down by 6.34%. [5] - Nanya New Materials achieved a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.52%, with net profit rising by 378.65% due to market demand recovery. [5] Transportation Industry Insights - In January 2026, domestic airline capacity decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 5.8% compared to December 2025, as airlines prepared for the Spring Festival. [7] - The overall passenger load factor for airlines improved by about 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December. [7] - During the Spring Festival holiday, national civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, with a flight completion rate of 95.8%, indicating growth compared to the previous year. [8] - International flight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in January, with a slight improvement in load factors, although some airlines faced challenges due to changes in the Japanese route. [9] - Baiyun Airport reported a significant increase in passenger throughput, while Shanghai Airport experienced a decline, attributed to shifts in travel demand. [10] - The report suggests focusing on large airlines for their earnings elasticity, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. [11]

航空机场 2026 年 1 月数据点评：春节错期 导致 1 月数据平淡，春运数据表现良好 事件：上市航司发布 2026 年 1 月运营数据。受春节错期影响，数据表现较为 平淡，但我们认为实际情况好于预期。 国内航线：春节错期导致 1 月运力投放同比下降，春运数据表现良好 2026 年 1 月上市公司国内航线运力投放同比下降约 4.3%，环比 25 年 12 月提 升约 5.8%。行业备战春运，运力投放环比有较明显提升。但由于 26 年春节较 25 年晚了近 3 周，春节错期导致今年 1 月运力投放同比是下降的。 客座率方面，1 月上市公司整体客座率较 25 年同期提升约 1.6pct，同比继续 改善；环比 12 月则下降 0.4pct。由于今年春节较晚，但航司的运力投放已经 提前部署，因此 1 月客座率表现环比看并不强势。我们认为这是正常现象，随 着春运逐渐发力，预计 2 月客座率环比会有较明显提升。 根据民航局数据，2 月 15 日起的 9 天春节假期期间，全国民航累计运输旅客 2205 万人次、保障航班 17.1 万班，日均 245 万人次、18956 班，分别较 2025 年春运同期增长 7.7%、4. ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic initiatives of the company to expand its product lines in the refractory materials sector and emerging technologies, particularly through a planned capital increase of up to 1.034 billion RMB for new projects and overseas expansion [6][11]. Company Developments - Changxin Bochuang signed a letter of intent to acquire 93.81% of Shanghai Honghui Light Communication Technology Co., Ltd. for approximately 375 million RMB, aiming to enhance its product line in the optical communication field [5]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to not alter the control of the company [5]. - Yutong Optical received acceptance from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its application to issue shares to specific investors, pending further approvals [5]. - Maoyan Entertainment forecasts a revenue of up to 4.7 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a growth of approximately 15.1% compared to 2024 [5]. - Conch Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 700 million and 1.4 billion RMB within six months [5]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China's industrial economy, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in value added for SMEs in 2025, outperforming the overall industrial growth rate by 1.0 percentage points [2]. - The construction of a new production line for zirconia and zircon-based materials is expected to yield a post-tax internal rate of return of 29.35% and a payback period of 4.89 years, indicating strong potential for profitability [7][8]. - The establishment of a production base in Vietnam is part of the company's strategy to enhance its overseas operations, targeting the growing demand in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam [9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural expansion of the rubidium and cesium market driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite solar cells and the development of space photovoltaics [7][12][13] Industry Overview - Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are identified as a new type of solar cell with advantages such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility compared to traditional silicon cells [7] - The report predicts that the penetration rate of perovskite solar cells in the photovoltaic market will rise significantly, from 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, driven by their cost-effectiveness and efficiency [9][12] Market Dynamics - The demand for rubidium and cesium is expected to grow substantially, with a projected CAGR of 115% from 2025 to 2030, as the perovskite battery market expands [12][16] - The report estimates that global demand for rubidium will increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, correlating with the anticipated growth in perovskite solar cell production [12][16] Technological Advancements - The stability of perovskite solar cells is a key challenge, but the addition of rubidium and cesium is expected to enhance their performance and longevity [8] - Flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and automotive power generation [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be crucial for the industrialization and validation of perovskite solar cells, with significant advancements expected in their application in space photovoltaics [13][14] - The integration of perovskite solar cells in space applications is projected to drive demand for rubidium significantly, with estimates indicating a potential need for 220 tons by 2030 due to space solar power initiatives [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "看好" (positive outlook), indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [21]. Core Insights - The global rubidium salt market is entering a new structural expansion cycle, driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite batteries, which may lead to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 115% in rubidium salt demand over the next five years [1][6]. - The penetration rate of perovskite solar cells is expected to rise significantly, from approximately 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030 in the photovoltaic market, driven by their low cost and high efficiency [2][6]. - The flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and vehicle power generation, enhancing industry expansion [3][5]. Summary by Sections Rubidium Salt Demand - The demand for rubidium salt is projected to increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 115%, driven by the growth in perovskite solar cell production [6][7]. - The perovskite battery industry is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, from 20 GW in 2026 to 281.7 GW by 2030, leading to a corresponding rise in rubidium salt demand from 146.7 tons to 2065.7 tons, with a CAGR of 94% [7][8]. Perovskite Battery Characteristics - Perovskite solar cells have achieved efficiencies exceeding 25%, significantly higher than other flexible solar cells, and maintain high performance under low light conditions, making them suitable for various applications [4][5]. - The lightweight and flexible nature of perovskite solar panels allows for seamless integration with building materials, positioning them as a mainstream choice in the BIPV sector [5]. Market Growth Projections - The global BIPV market is expected to grow from $16.66 billion in 2026 to $47.02 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 23.06%, as perovskite solar cells continue to evolve and gain market share [5]. - The demand for perovskite batteries in emerging applications is projected to account for approximately 20% of total demand by 2024, driven by their unique advantages [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected recovery in the semiconductor industry, with specific companies poised to benefit from this trend, particularly in the IC substrate market driven by AI demand [7][9][10]. Company Summaries - **兴森科技 (Xingsen Technology)**: The company is projected to achieve a net profit of between 132 million to 140 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses. This improvement is attributed to stable revenue growth and the recovery of its main business segments [8]. - **江丰电子 (Jiangfeng Electronics)**: The company is noted for its strategic positioning in both BT and ABF substrates, which are critical for AI applications. The demand for IC substrates is expected to surge, with the global market projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, and further to 45.34 billion USD by 2035, indicating a robust CAGR of 10.51% from 2026 to 2035 [10][11]. Industry Insights - The IC substrate market is experiencing a significant demand increase due to the rise of AI applications, with supply constraints leading to price increases. The supply-demand gap for ABF substrates is particularly pronounced, with a reported shortfall of 21% and prices rising by 38% over the past year [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the critical role of IC substrates in supporting AI computing power upgrades, with the technology's evolution being driven by the increasing density and performance requirements of AI chips [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jiangfeng Electronics [4][9]. Core Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz to enhance its core competitiveness in the semiconductor component business. The acquisition involves a cash purchase of approximately RMB 590.7 million for a 20.64% stake in Kaide Quartz, which will become a subsidiary post-transaction [2][9]. - The company forecasts a revenue of approximately RMB 4.6 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between RMB 431 million and RMB 511 million, reflecting a growth of 7.5% to 27.5% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, Jiangfeng Electronics anticipates achieving a revenue of approximately RMB 46 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB 431 million and RMB 511 million, indicating a growth of 7.5% to 27.5% [1][2]. - The company expects to achieve a quarterly revenue of approximately RMB 13.09 billion in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 33.57% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 9.45% [2][9]. - The company is actively advancing its ultra-pure metal sputtering target projects, with the Huanghu target factory construction progressing smoothly [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - Jiangfeng Electronics is positioned as a leading domestic player in semiconductor targets, with ongoing efforts to expand its semiconductor precision components business. The acquisition of Kaide Quartz is expected to enhance its product offerings in quartz components [2][9]. - The company is focusing on increasing its market share in advanced process products, with significant growth in revenue from ultra-pure metal sputtering targets and semiconductor precision components [2][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Jiangfeng Electronics is projected to be RMB 1.92, RMB 2.75, and RMB 3.55 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jiangfeng Electronics [4][9]. Core Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz to enhance its core competitiveness in the semiconductor component business. The acquisition involves a cash payment of approximately RMB 590.7 million for a 20.64% stake in Kaide Quartz, which will become a subsidiary post-transaction [2][9]. - The company forecasts a revenue of approximately RMB 4.6 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between RMB 431 million and RMB 511 million, reflecting a growth of 7.5% to 27.5% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Jiangfeng Electronics anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit for 2025, driven by an increase in market share for advanced process products and a rise in revenue from ultra-pure metal sputtering targets and semiconductor precision components. The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to reach approximately RMB 1.309 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 33.57% [2][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be RMB 1.92, with forecasts of RMB 2.75 and RMB 3.55 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [9][11]. Business Development - Jiangfeng Electronics is actively advancing its ultra-pure metal sputtering target projects, with the Huanghu target material factory construction progressing smoothly [3][9]. - The company is enhancing its strategic layout in the semiconductor precision component sector to meet customer demands and expand its product line, focusing on high-value-added products [9]. Market Position - Jiangfeng Electronics is recognized as a leading domestic player in the semiconductor target material sector, with the acquisition of Kaide Quartz expected to strengthen its position in the quartz component market [2][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant recovery in the profitability of the company, with a projected net profit of between 132 million and 140 million yuan for 2025, marking a substantial turnaround from previous losses [8][9] - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosive growth in AI server requirements, leading to a price surge in the substrate industry, particularly for BT and ABF substrates, with a reported price increase of 38% over the past year [10][11] - The global IC substrate market is expected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% projected from 2026 to 2035 [11] Company Analysis - The company is positioned as one of the few manufacturers with both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, making its production capacity and technological expertise particularly valuable in the current market context [10][12] - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, 0.25 yuan in 2026, and 0.40 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "recommend" rating for investment [12]