Economic Growth - GDP is expected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from Q2 2024[2] - The industrial added value is projected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in September 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period[3][10] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 3.5% year-on-year from January to September 2024, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[4][14] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in September 2024, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from August 2024[4][12] - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% from January to August 2024, impacting overall investment growth[14][16] Trade and Prices - Exports are anticipated to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in September 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from August 2024[4][16] - Imports are projected to increase by 1.1% year-on-year in September 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from August 2024[4][19] - CPI is expected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year in September 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous month[5][21] - PPI is forecasted to decline by 2.2% year-on-year in September 2024, with the decline widening by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[5][23] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are expected to reach 15,000 billion yuan in September 2024, a decrease of 8,100 billion yuan year-on-year[6][24] - M2 is projected to grow by 6.4% year-on-year by the end of September 2024, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[6][27] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 6.8 in October 2024, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and domestic economic expectations[6][30]
基数效应，经济增速或小幅反弹
Bei Da Guo Min Jing Ji Yan Jiu Zhong Xin·2024-09-30 09:00