建材行业专题研究：首提止跌回稳，沿超跌修复、大宗涨价、出海三个方向进攻

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a recovery in the real estate market, with a focus on consumption building materials and the potential for valuation recovery among leading companies [2][13]. - It highlights the expected increase in completion rates over new starts in the real estate sector, predicting a year-on-year growth of 3% and 4% for new starts in 2025 and 2026, respectively [14][19]. - The report anticipates a gradual release of demand for existing homes, benefiting leading consumer building material companies [20][24]. - It notes that the emphasis on controlling new supply will likely increase the proportion of government-led affordable housing projects, favoring small B-end enterprises [40][42]. - The report suggests that leading consumer building material companies are well-positioned to benefit from both performance and valuation recovery due to their comprehensive product offerings and strong market response capabilities [49][50]. Summary by Sections Main Line One: Real Estate Market Recovery - The political bureau meeting emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on inventory digestion and supply optimization [13]. - The report predicts that the completion rate will outperform new starts, with a projected year-on-year increase in completion area of 6.5% and 6.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [19][24]. - It highlights the expected increase in the proportion of existing homes and government-led housing projects, benefiting leading consumer building material companies [20][40]. Main Line Two: Price Elasticity of Bulk Building Materials - The report indicates that the price of bulk building materials, such as cement, is expected to show elasticity in Q4, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][9]. - It suggests that companies with strong pricing power in the bulk materials segment are likely to benefit from improved margins and performance in the upcoming quarters [9]. Main Line Three: Opportunities for Export-Oriented Building Material Companies - The report notes that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could benefit export-oriented building material companies by stimulating overseas demand [2][3]. - It emphasizes that companies with overseas production capacity are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of this trend [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading consumer building material companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and others that are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market and the shift towards small B and C-end markets [9][26]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the bulk materials sector, such as Conch Cement and Tianshan Shares, for their price elasticity in Q4 [9]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities, like China Jushi and Huaxin Cement, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9].