食品饮料行业周报：消费行业受益政策催化，板块迎来估值修复行情

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [41]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has benefited from policy catalysts, leading to a valuation recovery, with a weekly increase of 26.1%, ranking first among the Shenwan primary industries [7][19]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, although the fundamentals are still in a bottoming phase. The demand for consumer goods shows resilience, with fundamentals improving quarter by quarter, presenting investment opportunities [19][20]. - Recent policies, including interest rate cuts and support for the stock market, have raised expectations for consumer spending, which is crucial for the food and beverage sector [19][20]. Market Review - The food and beverage sector's weekly performance was +26.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which was +15.7%. Within the sector, liquor and dairy products led the gains with +29.5% and +24.3%, respectively [7][19]. - As of September 27, the liquor sector's valuation (PE-TTM) was 21.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector's valuation was 21.6X [19]. Industry Data - In August 2024, the production of liquor was 256,000 kiloliters, down 10.2% year-on-year, while beer production was 3.585 million kiloliters, down 3.3% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic fresh milk price as of September 20 was 3.14 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week but down 15.8% year-on-year [24]. - The price of imported bulk powder was 8,386 USD/ton in August 2024, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.9% and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [24]. Key Points - The liquor sector's valuation recovery is supported by a significant adjustment prior to policy announcements, with a year-to-date decline of 28.6% until September 23 [19]. - The beer sector has shown weak performance due to factors like restaurant demand and weather, but there are expectations for improvement as consumer policies are implemented [19]. - The dairy sector is still in a clearing phase, with a longer adjustment cycle compared to other sub-sectors, but demand is expected to improve with policy support [19][20].