U.S. Support for Democratic Openings in Conflict-Affected Countries: Lessons From Ethiopia and Sudan

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - Ethiopia and Sudan experienced significant democratic openings in 2018 and 2019, respectively, which presented opportunities for U.S. support for democratization, but ultimately failed to lead to democratic consolidation and descended into civil wars [5][9] - The U.S. government missed opportunities to support peaceful democratic change and exacerbated conflict drivers through exclusionary and short-sighted policies [5][9] - The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to better seize opportunities for democracy, aligning policies with high-level commitments and recognizing the role of emerging powers [5][10] Summary by Sections Introduction - The U.S. faces challenges in supporting democratic openings in fragile and conflict-affected states, particularly in the context of a global democratic recession and competing interests [8] Four Key Lessons - The report outlines four key lessons for U.S. policymakers: align policy with high-level commitment, factor in the role of emerging powers, recognize underlying structural factors, and prioritize inclusivity [10][11] Ethiopia - Ethiopia's democratic opening was marked by significant reforms under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, but internal political fragmentation and external influences complicated the transition [33][39] - The U.S. response to Ethiopia's opening was characterized by a lack of high-level commitment and insufficient resources, leading to missed opportunities for supporting democratization [50][52] Sudan - Sudan's democratic opening faced similar challenges, with the U.S. failing to adequately engage with emerging powers and misreading the political landscape, which contributed to the eventual coup [10][21] - The report highlights the importance of recognizing structural factors and the need for inclusive policies to support democratic transitions in both countries [25][30] Conclusion - The report concludes that the U.S. must learn from these cases to improve its approach to supporting democratic openings in the future, emphasizing the importance of commitment, inclusivity, and understanding local contexts [5][10]