Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that business as usual is unsustainable, with plastic production projected to rise from 435 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020 to 736 Mt in 2040, while mismanaged waste is expected to increase from 81 Mt in 2020 to 119 Mt in 2040 [29][30] - It highlights the need for stringent policies across the plastics lifecycle to prevent growth in primary plastics production and nearly eliminate plastic leakage to the environment by 2040 [30][31] - The report outlines that global ambition has modest macroeconomic costs, with a projected 0.5% global GDP loss in 2040 compared to the baseline scenario, but with significant environmental benefits [30][31] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report investigates the potential benefits and consequences of varying levels of international policy ambition to tackle plastic pollution, emphasizing that partial measures are insufficient to end plastic pollution [28][29] - It presents a scenario where stringent policies can limit total plastics use to 508 Mt in 2040 and enhance recycling rates to 42%, nearly eliminating mismanaged waste [30][31] Chapter 1: Context and Objectives - The chapter discusses the dual role of plastics in society, providing benefits while also contributing to severe environmental and health issues [36][37] - It notes the international commitment to develop a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, highlighting the urgency for comprehensive policy approaches [37][38] Chapter 2: Business-as-Usual is Unsustainable - The report projects that plastic waste will grow to 617 Mt by 2040, with significant leakage to the environment increasing to 30 Mt [29][30] - It emphasizes that current policies are inadequate to alter trends in plastic flows and pollution significantly [30][31] Chapter 3: Modelling Policy Packages - The chapter details the modelling framework used to analyze various policy scenarios, focusing on the lifecycle of plastics and the economic activities driving their use [43][44] - It presents ten policy instruments grouped into four pillars aimed at curbing plastic production and enhancing recycling [16][46] Chapter 4: Implications of Policy Scenarios with Partial Ambition - The report indicates that partial ambition scenarios fail to eliminate plastic leakage and can only modestly slow down primary plastics use [30][31] - It highlights the importance of strong policy commitments to achieve significant reductions in mismanaged plastic waste [30][31] Chapter 5: Implications of Policy Scenarios with High Ambition - The report asserts that ambitious integrated policies can decouple economic activity from plastics use and significantly reduce mismanaged plastic waste [30][31] - It emphasizes that all policy pillars are essential in achieving the goal of eliminating plastic waste by 2040 [30][31] Chapter 6: Comparison of Costs Across Scenarios - The analysis shows that policy packages targeting all stages of the plastics lifecycle are more cost-effective at the macroeconomic level [30][31] - It notes that non-OECD countries face higher investment needs to enhance waste management systems [30][31] Chapter 7: Challenges and Priorities - The chapter discusses the need for significant technical, economic, and governance improvements to implement ambitious policies globally [30][31] - It highlights the importance of international cooperation and financing to support developing countries in their policy efforts [30][31]