Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Inc (09868) [5] Core Views - XPeng's delivery capability is steadily improving, with September 2024 deliveries reaching a new high of 21,352 units, a 39% YoY increase and a 52% MoM increase [2][7] - The MONA M03 model, launched on August 28, 2024, exceeded expectations with over 30,000 pre-orders within 48 hours and quickly became the best-selling A-class pure electric sedan after its official launch in September [2][7] - XPeng's intelligent driving technology is progressing, with plans to achieve door-to-door autonomous driving by the end of 2024 and approach L3 autonomy by the second half of 2025 [7] - The XNGP urban autonomous driving system achieved an 83% monthly active user penetration rate in September 2024 [7] - The AI Tianji XOS 5.3.0 system was fully rolled out on September 25, 2024, bringing 32 feature updates and 38 performance upgrades [7] Financial Projections - Expected sales for 2024/2025/2026 are 180,000/450,000/670,000 units, with corresponding revenues of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan [8] - Net profit is projected to improve significantly, with estimates of -5.05/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 42%/82%/32% for 2024/2025/2026 [8] - The company is expected to achieve positive EBITDA of 1.9064 billion yuan in 2026, compared to -5.1072 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Market Performance - Current stock price is 55.00 HKD with a market capitalization of 104.45514 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a 52-week range of 74.30 to 25.50 HKD [5] - The company has a book value per share of 20.51 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.04% [5] Industry Context - XPeng operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle sector [5] - The company's AI-driven strategy and new model launches are expected to drive a turnaround in financial performance [8] - Collaboration with Volkswagen could further expand XPeng's revenue and technical capabilities [8]
小鹏汽车-W：小鹏汽车2024年9月销量点评：MONA交付超预期，盈利曙光初现