美国9月非农就业数据点评：失业率回落，美联储降息或不会太快

Labor Market Trends - The US unemployment rate fell from 4.22% in August to 4.05% in September, showing resilience in the labor market[2][5] - Non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, with private sector employment increasing by 222,300[2][6] - The job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio was 1.13 in August, below pre-pandemic levels, with job vacancies rising to over 8 million[2][8] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Average hourly earnings in September grew by 3.97% year-over-year, slightly above expectations, while monthly growth slowed to 0.37%[34] - Wage growth outpaced inflation in 9 out of 13 private sectors, with leisure and hospitality leading at a 31.7% increase since pre-pandemic[39][40] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in 2024, but the pace may slow due to stronger-than-expected labor market data[2][8] - Market expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut in November dropped to less than 1% after the September jobs report[61][67] Job Market Structural Changes - The Beveridge Curve has shifted post-pandemic, with recent data suggesting a return to pre-pandemic levels, indicating potential future unemployment rate increases as job vacancies decline[48][51] - Labor force participation remained unchanged at 62.7% in September, still 0.6 percentage points below pre-pandemic highs[14][16]