2024年9月美国非农数据点评：就业市场稳健，降息预期降温

Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, the highest since March[1][4] - Unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of decline[1][4] - Adult male unemployment rate dropped significantly to 3.7%, while adult female unemployment rate fell to 3.6%[1][4] - Teenage unemployment rate rose to 14.3%, the highest since January 2021[1][4] Sector Contributions - Services and government sectors contributed significantly to job growth, with education/healthcare and leisure/hospitality sectors accounting for 62.6% of new jobs (159,000 jobs)[1][5] - Manufacturing sector continued to decline, primarily due to a drop in durable goods employment[1][5] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 4.0% year-over-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1][11] - Job openings rose to 8.04 million in August, with 1.14 job openings per unemployed person[1][11] Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have cooled, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November, down from earlier expectations of a 50 basis point cut[1][12] - The market now anticipates two more rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of the year[1][12]