月度中国宏观洞察：财政刺激或蓄势待发，加码经济复苏

Economic Data Insights - August core CPI inflation rate was 0.3%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating weak demand[7] - Social retail sales growth fell to 2.1% in August, down from 2.7% in July, reflecting ongoing consumer weakness[7] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined for five consecutive months, dropping from 6.5% in March to 4.4% in August[7] Real Estate Market Analysis - Real estate development investment fell more than expected in August, with new home prices in 70 major cities declining further[7] - Despite the introduction of the 517 real estate policy, the sales decline in September widened compared to previous months[5] - The impact of the 517 policy on property sales appears to be diminishing, as evidenced by high-frequency data from 30 major cities[5] Policy Outlook - Anticipated fiscal stimulus may exceed previous measures, with expectations of issuing 2-3 trillion yuan in special bonds to stimulate consumption and address local debt risks[5] - Monetary policy is expected to include a 25-50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential 20 basis point interest rate cut in Q4[15] - The government is likely to introduce tax or social security incentives to boost disposable income for low- to middle-income groups[5] Currency and Market Sentiment - The RMB is expected to appreciate in the short term, driven by anticipated fiscal and real estate stimulus policies[16] - Market sentiment is likely to improve due to the announced economic stimulus measures, which may positively impact the capital market[13] - The USD index is projected to rise to 102-106 by year-end, potentially leading to a slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD[16]