2024年增换购用户趋势洞察

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The passenger car market has entered a phase of "micro-growth," with manufacturers exploring new growth opportunities beyond new energy vehicles (NEVs), focusing on the potential of replacement and additional purchase users [2] - Replacement and additional purchase users are seen as a new driving force for the industry, with a significant base of 345 million vehicles in China offering substantial market potential [2] - However, consumer income expectations remain pessimistic, raising questions about the effectiveness of government policies aimed at stimulating replacement demand [2] - Replacement users exhibit unique behavioral characteristics and preferences, which manufacturers can leverage to capture market opportunities [2] - The report highlights interesting trends, such as some NEV users switching back to fuel vehicles during replacement, and questions whether this trend will persist and impact the NEV market [2] Replacement and Additional Purchase User Trends - The replacement cycle is typically over 8 years, with a peak expected between 2024 and 2026, though concerns remain about prolonged replacement cycles due to poor income expectations [3] - Replacement subsidies can aid in converting user intentions, but users often lack clear understanding of these policies, and the threshold for effective subsidy amounts has increased [3] - Replacement users tend to first select their desired vehicle model or even complete the new car purchase before selling their old car, making it challenging to predict the timing of replacements [5] - Replacement users have a broader selection range, with twice as many vehicle models considered compared to first-time buyers, and they prefer content such as reviews and user experiences to aid decision-making [5] - Replacement users are divided into three groups: economically driven, experience-driven, and demand-driven, with price and size upgrades remaining the main trend, though mid-range users (10-300k RMB) show signs of upgrade fatigue [5] - Additional purchase users show distinct preferences: those buying fuel vehicles prioritize brand and reputation, while those buying NEVs focus on experiencing intelligent features [5] Replacement User Demographics and Preferences - Replacement users are predominantly male, aged 30-50, and married with children, with over 40% having a household income of 200-500k RMB [9][11] - Replacement users are concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, with a significant middle-class demographic [11] - Replacement users are categorized into three groups: economically driven, experience-driven, and demand-driven, with further segmentation into eight subgroups based on income, age, and preferences [12] - Economically driven users are sensitive to price and prefer Chinese or joint-venture fuel vehicles, while experience-driven users prioritize advanced technology and intelligent features [15][17] - Demand-driven users focus on reliability, brand reputation, and safety, with preferences varying by income level and location [20] Replacement User Behavior and Decision-Making - Replacement users exhibit cautious and rational behavior, with a broader selection range, longer browsing times, and higher interaction rates compared to first-time buyers [31] - Replacement users prioritize safety, price, and brand reputation when purchasing vehicles, with a greater focus on comfort, intelligent features, and technical upgrades compared to first-time buyers [44] - Replacement users are less loyal to their previous brands, with 90% considering other brands during replacement, driven by a desire to try new brands or dissatisfaction with their previous vehicle [45] - The concentration of brand preferences among replacement users is declining, with independent NEV brands rapidly gaining market share, particularly in the mid-range segment [49][60] Additional Purchase User Trends - Additional purchase users are typically older, with a higher proportion of middle-aged and high-income individuals, and a preference for NEVs, especially pure electric vehicles [66][69] - Additional purchase users are divided into two groups: those preferring NEVs, who are younger and more focused on intelligent features, and those preferring fuel vehicles, who are more influenced by price and brand reputation [71][76] - Additional purchase users of fuel vehicles are more economically driven, while those purchasing NEVs are more influenced by experience and technological advancements [77] Market Dynamics and Trends - Price and size upgrades remain the main trend in the replacement market, with an average price increase of approximately 40k RMB, though mid-range users (10-300k RMB) show signs of upgrade fatigue [36][39] - The preference for NEVs among replacement users is growing, with plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles expected to surpass pure electric vehicles in the next 1-2 years [50] - The phenomenon of NEV users switching back to fuel vehicles is minimal (less than 2%) and not expected to significantly impact the NEV market [52] - Independent NEV brands are rapidly gaining market share, particularly in the mid-range segment, while Tesla's share among replacement users has declined [60][61]