电力资产重估，成长与红利兼备

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The power industry is undergoing a new growth phase, with continuous increases in electricity consumption boosting power demand. The scarcity of base-load power sources such as hydropower, thermal power, and nuclear power is highlighted, with expected improvements in utilization hours and electricity prices due to ongoing green energy policies and the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission channels [10][19] - Benefiting from electricity market reforms, the revenue mechanism for power operators is expected to shift towards comprehensive revenue, leading to increased cash flow and gradually rising dividend ratios, enhancing long-term investment value [10][19] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery and Asset Scale Expansion - From the beginning of 2024 to September 30, the power sector has seen a price increase of 20.64%. The significant increase in installed capacity has driven revenue growth, with net profit showing a fluctuating growth trend influenced by coal prices [13][15] - As of August 2024, the total installed power capacity reached 3127.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 13.87% [19] 2. Strong Power Demand and Expected Increase in Dividend Ratios - National electricity consumption maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in 2023 and 7.9% from January to August 2024. The highest load growth in the Southern Power Grid was 18%, and in the East China Power Grid, it was 23% [22][24] - The return on equity (ROE) for hydropower and nuclear power was 12.4% and 10.8% respectively in 2023, with increases of 2.3 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [32] 3. Marginal Catalysis of Electricity Reform Promotes Growth - The core of the electricity reform policy is to promote marketization among various entities, transitioning from planned pricing to competitive bidding, which will rationally allocate power source costs [40][44] - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi already in formal operation, allowing real-time price signals to reflect supply and demand relationships [46][48] 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Assets with Growth and Dividend Attributes - The report suggests focusing on quality assets that exhibit both growth and dividend characteristics, particularly in thermal power, where low coal prices are expected to enhance profitability in 2024 [49] - For renewable energy, the report highlights the potential for improved electricity pricing environments and suggests monitoring companies like Three Gorges Energy and solar energy firms [49][50]