港股策略：市场暴涨后的行情推演

Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 4, the Hang Seng Index has increased nearly 25% since its rally began on September 24[4] - The market's main trend revolves around cyclical recovery and valuation repair, with defensive dividend sectors underperforming significantly[4] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market has returned to above the 5-year average level[5] Group 2: Driving Forces of the Market - The current market is characterized as a "first-stage rocket" driven by policy-induced valuation recovery[9] - The "first-stage rocket" is primarily driven by market expectations rather than substantial economic data improvements[11] - The Hang Seng Index's PE valuation percentile has exceeded 75%, indicating that valuation repair is largely complete[11] Group 3: Future Market Path - The market is currently overheated but has not yet ended; attention should be paid to potential corrections and volatility risks[13] - The second-stage rocket's ability to take over is uncertain and will depend on upcoming economic data[15] - If economic fundamentals do not stabilize, the market may experience further downward pressure, potentially leading to a return of dividend assets as the main focus[16]