有色金属：估值仍处低位，关注有色金属板块配置机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals sector [6][14]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently undervalued, with the industry index PE-TTM at 19.09 times, which is in the 14.15% percentile since 2008, indicating it is still in a historical low range [10][15]. - Positive policy developments and seasonal demand in the industry are expected to create investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][30]. - The report highlights specific companies to watch: for copper, it recommends WISCO Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Jincheng Mining; for aluminum, it suggests China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Yun Aluminum; for tin, it recommends Yunnan Tin Company, Xinyi Silver Tin, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [3][14]. Summary by Sections Valuation Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector is at a historical low valuation, with sub-sector PE-TTM ratios as follows: industrial metals at 16.50, precious metals at 31.38, minor metals at 20.79, energy metals at 17.81, and new metal materials at 31.77, all indicating low percentile rankings since 2008 [10][15]. Fund Holdings - The proportion of public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector has been oscillating upwards since Q4 2019, with a current ratio of 5.74% as of Q2 2024, reflecting a slight increase [11][28]. Macro Economic Factors - Recent macroeconomic policies from the Central Committee emphasize lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, which are expected to stabilize the real estate market and improve demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [12][30]. Price Trends and Forecasts - The average price of copper in Q3 2024 was 75,200 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while aluminum averaged 19,700 CNY/ton, up 5.4% year-on-year. The report anticipates further price increases for copper and aluminum in Q4 2024 due to supply constraints and rising demand [13][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating and recommending specific companies across various sub-sectors [14][34].