电力行业专题研究：电力资产重估，成长与红利兼备

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The power industry is undergoing a new growth phase, with continuous increases in electricity consumption boosting power demand. The scarcity of base-load power sources such as hydropower, thermal power, and nuclear power is highlighted, with expected utilization hours being secured. Policies promoting green energy and the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission channels are expected to improve renewable energy consumption and electricity prices. Benefiting from electricity market reforms, the revenue mechanism for power operators is expected to shift towards comprehensive revenue, with increasing cash flow and dividend ratios, enhancing long-term investment value [10][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery and Asset Scale Enhancement - From the beginning of 2024 to September 30, the power sector has seen a price increase of 20.64%. The significant increase in power generation capacity has driven revenue growth, with net profit showing a fluctuating growth trend influenced by coal prices. The installed capacity of power sources in China reached 2919.7 GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.87%, and reached 3127.6 GW by August 2024 [10][19][22]. 2. Strong Power Demand and Expected Increase in Dividend Ratios - National electricity consumption maintained a high growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in 2023 and 7.9% from January to August 2024. The highest load growth in the Southern Power Grid was 18%, and in the East China Power Grid, it was 23%. The return on equity (ROE) for hydropower and nuclear power was 12.4% and 10.8%, respectively, in 2023, with increases of 2.3 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [22][24][26]. 3. Marginal Catalysis of Electricity Reform Promotes Growth - The core of the electricity reform policy is to promote marketization among various entities, transitioning from planned electricity prices to competitive bidding. The focus will shift from electricity prices to comprehensive revenue from different power sources. The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi already in operation, reflecting real-time supply and demand relationships [37][40][44]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Assets with Growth and Dividend Attributes - The continuous increase in electricity consumption and power demand indicates growth potential. The report suggests focusing on quality assets with both growth and dividend attributes, including companies like Huaneng International, Anhui Energy, and Zhejiang Energy in thermal power, and Three Gorges Energy and solar companies in renewable energy. For hydropower and nuclear power, companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are recommended due to their stable profitability and cash flow [49][50].